30s10s Curve Steepener a Prelude to Higher Gold Prices
In the chart below I’ve plotted the ratio b/t the yield on 30 (TYX) and 10 (TNX) year treasuries over time. The ratio is simply another way to look at the bps spread diff b/t the two. Note that at each…...
How’s It Going Down?
As I ponder where the world stands from a macro/market cycle standpoint I’m reminded of one of my favorite rappers in the halcyon years of being a teenager in rural Corry, PA, DMX, and the best track that came off his debut album, It’s…...
$1177 & Why Gold Has Proven Nothing Yet
The #’d title in this post refers to gold’s 12 mo MA. In our recent PM work we’ve suggested the current set-up in gold most resembles its set-up in 1976, 1982 and 1984 into major cyclical or structural lows. That…...
Fake Bear Market?
Yesterday we highlighted some NYSE 52 week data that suggested the possibility that U.S. equities were deeply oversold and that the August “shock” was so abrupt and severe that those characteristics made it more emblematic of a “fake” bear market than…...
Short Cattle
I’ve been monitoring what I’ve viewed as a bearish set-up in cattle futures for the past few weeks. Specifically, the material rally they’ve had in recent years ultimately appears to have resulted in a blow-off top in June. Subsequent to this peak…...
After Brief Respite, Rates Set to Rise Again
After a brief respite, I believe rates are set to rise again, especially on the long bond. This was a thesis we originally laid out here on 6/15/15. That day rates on the 30 yr closed at 3.09% vs. the…...
NYSE New High Data May Be Signaling Equities within Striking Distance of Durable Low
While our call for an August “shock” was spot on, thus far our calls for additional downside, here and here, have failed to materialize. That doesn’t mean the 8/24 shock low won’t be re-tested. Volatile down-drafts such as that seen…...
Gold Inching Ever Closer into what Will Likely Be a Major, Multi-Year Low
We’ve been through PMs fairly extensively as of late (this is our third on the topic in a month vs. eight total in the previous two years). Our most recent work on the space has generally been time-focused. Specifically, we’ve…
Crash Sequence?
Our case(s) for global equity weakness have been laid out in depth dating back to the third week of July beginning with EMs and then moving on to domestic/US. The following posts highlighted our attempt to build a foundation of work for that…...
Characteristics of PMs Today Increasingly Resemble that of SSEC in 2013, DJI in 1942
All the way back in July 2013 we began building a case for being long the SSEC even as Barron’s was then calling for the re-emergence of a crisis in the region. Arguably the most important pillar of our long thesis…...