Into the Breach for the CRB Index
On 11/16 I highlighted the long-term support the CRB Index was approaching. Three weeks later it has pierced said support. In doing so, it has stepped foot into the “breach”, or what can be seen on the chart below as…...
Looking in All the Wrong Places: Why Global Equities are Set to Collapse (Part 2)
Last Thurs in this post we explained that we felt that the DAX was foreshadowing a major global equity collapse along the lines of that witnessed in 1937 or 1974. In that post, we used this analog to justify the point…...
Transports Have Put in a Major, Secular Peak vs. the Broader Market
In the chart below note that in late Dec-14 the ratio of the DJ Transportation Index vs. SPX hit ~4.40, a level that has historically been consistent with major, secular peaks. Historically, such peaks have resulted in Transports under-performing the…...
Miners Held Steady as Gold Reached a New Low this Week
Courtesy of ST the following occurred this week: Even with gold itself hitting a new low, the gold mining stock indexes are at least 5% above their own lows. The only other times this has happened, using the HUI Gold…...
Looking in All the Wrong Places: Why Global Equities Are Set to Collapse
To say Draghi underwhelmed today would be an understatement; EUR is +300 bps and DAX is -450 bps while USD is +200 bps, the US long bond is -225 bps and SPX is -100 bps. I hold no position in any…...
Gold Remains Compellingly Close to a Major Low
As I type spot gold is printing ~$1,055, putting it ~24% below its 4-yr/208-wk MA. This is the first week in 18 it has been this far removed from those MAs as it first breached this threshold the week of 7/31/15 when…...
Euro Approaching L-T Support, Reaction Will Have Material Implications for Future Trajectory of Inflation/Deflation Thematic
As I look back on the site in recent weeks/months it seems clear that the work has begun to shift toward the thematic of a deflation/inflation debate. Or, more specifically, the site’s thematic increasingly seems to reveal a world lurching, at accelerating…...
What are the Implications of the SPX Finally Correcting >10% in August After Nearly Three Years of Uninterrupted Upside?
In May-14 I discussed here that the magnitude and duration of the SPX rally off its 10/3/11 low w/o a 10% correction was turning into one of history’s biggest such moves. In a follow-up post on the same topic in Oct-15 after it had…...
The Fed Plans to Hike Rates as it Fails at Its Price Stability Mandate; Gold Should Soon Begin Rising as a Result
Along the lines of our post two days ago re: the St. Louis Fed’s new deflation indicator, below we present a similar indicator that tracks the same institution’s estimate of the Fed hitting its mandated 2.0% (i.e., midpoint of 1.5%-2.5%) inflation…...
Time to Buy WMT after Recent Downside
In the chart below WMT sits atop ~17-yr support line (1) after having witnessed a fair degree of intense selling YTD, with that downside accelerating in the past few weeks. The same selling has also brought it back down to…...