CRB Threatening to Break 40-Year Support as Deflation Risks Reach Great Recession Levels
A very simple, weekly long-term chart of the CRB Index is presented below. As you can see, the index’s significant decline over the past year has taken it down to line (1) support. This support dates back 40 years and represents…...
Nikkei Still On Track Despite Summer Mishap?
I’ve not updated any of our Nikkei framework since 8/10 in this post. It was in that post where we provided an analog update comparing the Nikkei off its swing high in May-13 onward vs. the DJI off its own…...
War Machine
Somebody is going to have to fire up the war machine to prevent deflation (crude) from accelerating (declining) in the near-term. Absent that, dramatic, near-term cuts in global oil output are needed. Per the below, the Tadawul, Saudi Arabia’s main…...
1937 (May I Have Another?)
The comparisons b/t 1937 and modern-day, as worn out as they’ve become since originating as far back as 2010, have never been more striking, both fundamentally as a DEC rate hike becomes a lock and chart-wise as follows: If the…...
History Suggests 2015’s Volatility Is Just another Mid-Cycle Pause
This week I spent some time updating a master market data spreadsheet I maintain that largely consists of Shiller’s historical data. In doing so I noticed that as of Feb of this year, the SPX closed 31% > its 48…...
Airline Outperformance vs. Railroads to Continue, Accelerate
This post is a spread trade dedicated to two components of the DJ Transportation Index. In the chart below the ratio of the DJ Railroad Index vs. the DJ Airline Index is breaking below key, long-term support lines (1)-(3). Given…...
Potential Cyclical High In Place for SPX Relative to Crude
The chart below shows the long-term ratio of the SPX vs. crude. The pattern is well-defined in that it develops a large left shoulder over the course of 1985-1997 (SPX out-performance), followed by a distinct head from 1997-2000 (acceleration of…...
SPX Close > 2,050 in October Would Be Bullish: Part 2
Last week we put some work together detailing why a close above 2,050 for the SPX in October would be bullish for forward returns across six months and up to a year. That logic was straightforward enough that we won’t recapitulate…...
This Stock is Successfully Re-Testing a Previous Bullish Break-Out
On 2/23/15 in this post we highlighted the very bullish chart pattern on IPGP and suggested initiating a long in the name. At the time of the latter post we noted the name was over-extended following its break-out from a…...
1998 Redux for Crude?
In these two posts here and here we discussed 1998 as a potential outcome to Aug/Sep’s global VOL in equities whereby strong pivots higher could result in additional, sustained upside to the long-term bull cycle that’s been intact since 2009 (or…...