Duration & Size Matter: Part 2 (And Why the Revenant May Truly be Dead)
Nearly 18 months ago, on 5/9/14, we noted the SPX had gone 652 days and had rallied 72% without at least a 10% correction, with that stretch dating back to the summer/fall 2011 mini-crash lows. We went on to note…...
SPX Close > 2,050 in October Would be Bullish
As of today 2,050 is the SPX’s 12 mo MA. August’s sell-off and September’s continuing remnants of VOL from the previous month resulted in the SPX closing below its 12 mo MA for those two consecutive months after having closed…...
MCD Hits Key Resistance
There have been some previous questions on MCD re: chart pattern and set-up, so with this morning’s gains, I figured I’d take another look and update my thoughts. In response to previous questions I’ve answered by suggesting the chart looked decent,…...
CNH in Macro Driver Seat, Has Potential to Create Global Deflation Under PBoC Devaluation Campaign
The relationship b/t the USD and CNH increasingly appears to be the single most important global macro input factor. USD’s relevance has always been well appreciated but the closer I examine it v-a-v CNH, and China in general, the more significant…...
Gold, Rarely a Rush: Part 2
For more than a year now we’ve made a concerted effort to continuously revisit the ideas that PMs, especially gold, had more ultimate upside left in a major structural bull cycle despite the fact that cyclically speaking, they had been in…...
If a Sustained Bull is Underway for PMs Gold Could Plausibly Reach $8K+
In the recent past we’ve used posts such as this and this to highlight later-1976 as a potential corollary to where gold stands today v-a-v its current cycle placement. Yesterday we drilled into the USD’s set-up and found what appears to be strong…...
Absent Incremental QE from B-of-J, USDJPY Threatening a Major, Sustained Move Lower
The USDJPY cross closed above its 12 mo MA for every month beginning with Oct-12 and ending Aug-15. That’s a massive three year up-trend. However, in all of the charts below it’s technicals appear quite bearish and in my view, threaten a…...
PMs Appear Green-Lit to Advance
In the chart below take note of the simple fact that the DXY index (USD) appears poised to break down from a consolidation/flag pattern formed by lines (1) and (2) through much of 2015 at inset (A) while at inset (B), it is…...
Silver Potentially on the Cusp of an Explosive Move Higher
In the chart below I show bullish descending wedge patterns in silver across history at (A) and (B). Pattern (A) begins at a major structural peak in 1982 and lasts ~four years, completing itself with a bullish break-out in late…...
30s10s Curve Steepener a Prelude to Higher Gold Prices
In the chart below I’ve plotted the ratio b/t the yield on 30 (TYX) and 10 (TNX) year treasuries over time. The ratio is simply another way to look at the bps spread diff b/t the two. Note that at each…...