Taking the Extremely Illogical to The Logical Extreme
In Jan, then in Mar and then twice in Apr of this year (once here and another here) I attempted to build a compelling historical case for the past year of increased VOL-based consolidation in US equities being emblematic of similar pauses in 1926-1927, 1953-1954 and…...
Early 2016’s Out-Performance in Gold vs. Other Commodities Signals New Bull Market for the Metal
In this 2/23/16 post we asked whether or not a sustained upside move in gold could continue to occur without other commodities in general also participating. In short, history suggested the answer to that question was yes. What we did not do in…...
Well-Defined Break-Downs in the Ratio of Gold vs. Silver Have Historically Led to Large Absolute Gains in Both
Much has recently been made about the decline in the ratio of gold vs. silver from near all-time highs of late. Less has been made of the fact that over the past week, that decline has seen the ratio break…...
Long AMZN, Short AAPL Pair Trade Has Legs
On 12/17/15 in this post we highlighted the favorable technical set-up in the ratio of AMZN vs. AAPL and said the following about the first chart below, which is the chart we presented in the original post: “Here’s AMZN vs. AAPL. I…
This Has Only Happened Prior to the Plaza Accord & the Global Real Estate Bubble
As of Dec-15 the spread between the trailing 56 month (an objective reference point: gold peaked 56 months ago on a monthly closing basis in Aug-11) rates of change in the USD and gold reached in excess of 67% (i.e.,…...
CNY Cross vs. Gold Highly Informative, Signals Beginning of New Global Macro Regime
In the chart below I plot CNY vs. gold. The cross has been in a downward sloping channel b/t lines (1) and (2) dating back to 1996. Further, via the vertical blue lines, note that every major pivot in the prevailing…...
Near-Term Commdodity Resistance, but Big Picture Thematic Remains a World Beginning to Shift Away From Its Deflationary Anchor
In the chart below I highlight the CRB Index and the fact that at (A) it has rallied back up to test former 40-yr support line (1) after reaching less important, temporary support line (2) in Feb-16. Note that former 40-yr…
Silver Update: Beginning of a Major Rally
Last week we had a very simple post that highlighted silver had broken out from a bullish descending wedge pattern off its 2011 highs. If we analoged the decline off the same 2011 highs and compared it to the decline…...
Maastricht Treaty, ERM2 Fraying?
I’ve recently shown, via the chart below, that the ratio of the DJ Stoxx 600 vs. SPX is nearing 20+ year channel support. Said support has only been hit one other time, in fall-92. The relevance of that period is…
Big Silver Break-Out
Assuming gains hold through week-end, silver is staging a significant break-out from the descending wedge it’s been in since 2011 b/t lines (1) and (2) in the chart below. Further, per the analog on the same chart, notice how similar…...