Counting Both Up & Down

Counting Both Up & Down

The markets have rallied very nicely as of late.  I could do another mid-cycle pause analog update, but I tend to do a lot of those, and am frankly tired of looking at those charts for the time being. Instead…...

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Closing the Loop on Japan & China

Closing the Loop on Japan & China

In the past few days I’ve detailed important inflection points in both Japan & China, at least as I perceived them. The only thing I didn’t do was throw up a ratio chart b/t the two region’s equity markets –…...

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Searching for the EM/Commodity Turn

Searching for the EM/Commodity Turn

Below I plot the ratio of the PCAC Index (Producer Price Index – All Commodities) vs. the USD Index (DXY) over time along with a ~43-year support line dating back to 1973. While not at support, the ratio is very…...

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Sina Review (Out-sized Moves Nearing in USDCNY & SHCOMP)

Sina Review (Out-sized Moves Nearing in USDCNY & SHCOMP)

China’s equity market has been dead for the past year and it’s 9 mo hi/lo range now < 12%, about tied for lowest on record with similar prints in Mar-01 and Jul-14. Both of the above dates preceded robust expansions…...

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Nikkei & Yen Approaching Inflection Points

Nikkei & Yen Approaching Inflection Points

Below the ratio of the Yen vs. Nikkei is plotted in the top pane and the Nikkei alone in the bottom pane. In the top pane the ratio b/t the Yen and Nikkei has collapsed back down to support line…...

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Europe/US Relative Strength at 30-Year Channel Support

Europe/US Relative Strength at 30-Year Channel Support

As broken as the EU is, the ratio of the STOXX 600 vs. SPX now sits at 30-year channel support (panel 1), with the last six months of under-performance ostensibly driven by crack-up fears (BREXIT, Italy, etc.). Also note that…...

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An Ugly Chart

An Ugly Chart

TSLA is presented on a weekly basis below. This chart is quite ugly looking, in my view. It appears as if it’s poised for an imminent break-down from multi-year support as part of completing a large rounding top pattern. If…...

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A Look at Historical Secular Bears

A Look at Historical Secular Bears

Consider the very long-term DJI chart below with quarterly price data extending back to the late 19th century. In it you’ll find annotations of the index’s three historical secular bear markets from the early 20th century (1905-1925), off the pre…...

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Expedited Upside?

Expedited Upside?

Subsequent to our semi-out-performance long thesis outlined earlier this year – which has worked spectacularly I might add – there has been a dearth of appealing-looking industry related charts when considering them on a relative ratio basis vs. the SPX. …...

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Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

I last updated my mid-cycle pause analog nearly two months ago, all the way back on 9/30/16. The truth of the matter has been that up until the past two weeks post-11/8 U.S. presidential election, that framework seemed all but…...

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