Silver Analog Has Been Fulfilled, Nearly Perfectly
Here’s the updated silver analog chart below. Amazingly, it has been fulfilled nearly perfectly since we originally pointed it out as a reason to be short and/or avoid the PM complex all together. That was done all the way back…...
Analog Update
This post is one giant analog dump. As it stands, I continue to see very little worth doing right now across financial markets. This suggests to me markets are in a place that rewards sitting and observing as the next…...
Where Might U.S. Equities Finally Encounter a Material Pull-Back?
In the chart below the Dow is plotted on a long-term basis. Note that lines (1) and (2) resistance come into play in the ~16,250-16,500 area. I believe line (1) is the most relevant piece of resistance as it runs…...
Another Analog Framework from Which to Assess the Nikkei’s Rise
As of late, in conjunction with the Nikkei breaking above long-term trend-line resistance at ~14K, we began to suggest in this post that the index could make a sprint up to ~17.5K before peaking and then correcting. With the above in…...
Solar Stock Update
On February 19th we had a post that asked if solar stocks were intrinsically cheap. By “intrinsically cheap” we meant relative to the average and worst paths that other bubbles, after they had collapsed, had taken off their-all time highs…....
Thoughts on the Nikkei in Real Terms
We’ve had some commentary recently about looking at the Nikkei in real terms. By real we meant taking the nominal value of the Nikkei and dividing by 10 Yr UST yields as a proxy for CPI. 10 Yr UST yields…...
Analog Update
Haven’t updated analogs in a while so this will be an exhaustive attempt at that. 1) 4th & 5th Consecutive Annual Gain – All ex 1928/1929 – Dow 1A) 4th & 5th Consecutive Annual Gain – 1988/1989 vs. 2012/2013 –…...
PMs Experienced a Crash of Sorts in April, Now What?
I’m not convinced that when an asset experiences a crash/mini-crash-like event as PMs did in April that they immediately bottom and begin a sustained thrust higher like nothing happened. Such technical destruction tends to result in highly volatile bottoming processes…....
Global Macro Overview
In the charts below the following noteworthy events are occurring: Mega-cap gold miner ABX is at 20-year support as well as its 2008 panic lows while its YoY is more negative than it’s ever been at -56% The ratio of the…...
Updated Silver Analog
Updated to reflect prices at ~$26.15 this week. One word – kaboom. Likely headed much lower to that aforementioned $13-$18 range....