Analog Update – SPX/Dow Remain on Track for Materially More Upside this Year
In the chart below I’ve updated the 1988/1989 4th/5th consecutive annual gain analog. Seems as if we completely just skipped over the ~400 bps correction the Dow had in this recent ~1 month window in 1989 and are apt to…...
Emergence of Solid Analog Framework from Which to Assess the Nikkei’s Amazing Run
We’ve spent the better portion of the past few weeks focused almost entirely on the Nikkei in an attempt to better understand what’s going on with its current price action in the context of similarly positive episodes throughout the Dow’s…...
Equity Analog Update
Was reasonably confident, per the analog below, we’d get a quick, ~400 bps correction into ~14K on the Dow sometime in the past week or two. Increasingly, that appears unlikely. If it doesn’t happen, there’s a good chance the Dow…...
AAPL Analog Update
Our AAPL long, initiated in small size at ~$440 and in much larger size at $420, has begun to work very nicely. Assuming you split your position size 50/50 at ~$440 and ~$420, one should be up ~8% as of…...
Thoughts on the Two-Year Consolidation in Precious Metals
Remember our alternate way of thinking about silver we presented a few weeks back? That post is right here. In it, we suggested the potential for additional upside in the metal and that the highs from April 2011 were not…...
Updated Thoughts on Coffee
As a refresher, here’s some background on our evolving coffee thesis, as well as right here. Though the set-up has been somewhat technically appealing at times, we’ve correctly remained on the sidelines/bearish and have watched the product’s price decline ~20%…...
Is Copper the Nikkei’s Rosetta Stone?
I was admiring the technical break-down in copper this morning (thinking about a long nat gas / short copper trade) and began to notice how analogous the price action in Copper 1993-2004 has been to the Nikkei 2003-current. Take a…...
What to Do with Cotton?
Had this post on cotton back in July which I thought was a quality piece of work. Bought a little back then, but not much as we planned on getting it bigger at 60, which was a price it failed…...
Quick Global Macro Overview
The ratio of the Nikkei vs. gold is reaching resistance after a massive 55%, four month rally off support. At the same time, gold sits at support itself. The Dow analog calls for a correction if the index can rally…...
Equity Analog Update
You’ve all seen this a thousand times by now. That said, it’s something, given its uncanny and ongoing similarities, we want to continuously and frequently refresh. Regardless, we present the Dow’s rally from 1988/1989 and its comparison to the path…...