Updating Our Downside Targets
Our assumed downside target of ~1,360-1,370 is quickly approaching per line (1) support and analog support against the 1988-1989 4th/5th consecutive annual gain moves. We would begin to slowly raise net long positions in equity indices as this level approaches…...
Analog Update: More Near-Term Downside Likely but Cyclical Outlook Remains Bullish
We’re updating our 4th and 5th consecutive annual gain analog in the charts below. First chart displays those years in history that have represented 4th consecutive annual gains. As we have often noted, including in our 10/24 analog update, if…...
Analog Update
Focusing on the “4th consecutive annual gain” analog in this post. Heading into 4Q12 the analog suggested the potential for an immediate sprint higher for the entirety of the quarter or weakness in its first half, followed by strength in…...
Although it Sits on 10-Year Support, Coffee Could Continue to Disappoint over the Intermediate-Term
The chart below reflects the fact that coffee futures sit on 10-year support line (1) dating back to 2002. It also highlights the fact that commercial hedgers, who more often than not tend to get inflection points correct in the…...
If U.S. Bonds are the “Big Short” of the Next Decade, it Likely Means Japanese Equities are the “Big Long”
We got to thinking yesterday and came up with the chart below… It plots the ratio of the SPX vs. Nikkei against the 10 Yr UST price since 1998, when things really started going “global” with LTCM, the Russian FX…...
While the USD Could Face Additional Near-Term Downside, the Potential for a Large Rally May be Growing
Broadly speaking, we’ve been bearish and/or neutral on the USD for the past few months. That said, we’ve also tried to stress the idea that it was likely in the process of putting a durable, long-term bottom in and that…
Revisiting Our Cycle Work Dating Back to 1896 for Perspective on the Rally off the March 2009 Lows
For some background on this topic check out this post here. A couple of months have passed since that original post so we thought it worthwhile to update the analog charts to see what has or hasn’t changed in terms of…...
1986-1989 = 2010-2013?
I wanted to officially catalog this comparison on the site instead of just communicating about it via email and also provide some granular detail on where the market may decline to. As you all know, it seems like the parallel…...
Updated Analog Chart of YTD Rallies in a 4th Consecutive Up Year
Are we going to get our 1,540-1590 SPX target by YE? Charts below are updated with price action as of 10:30 AM EST and assumes DJIA 13,660. Remember, these analog charts are of the DJIA and we’re extrapolating the conclusions…...
Continue to Reiterate that Homebuilders Likely Have More Upside & Out-Performance Left
The chart below plots the post peak price bubble analog we’ve highlighted numerous times before with prices updated through today. The black line is the S&P Homebuilders Index. Our ongoing thesis has been that it will ultimately reach ~50% of…...