The Federal Reserve’s Epochal Bubble-Creating, Cycle-Breaking Abilities
The Nasdaq reached a new all-time high in late-2014, surpassing the previous one it put in place in the early 2000s at the height of the tech bubble. This successful reclamation project was quite a feat – in accomplishing it…...
Has Russia Signaled the end of the Global Emerging Market Bear Cycle?
Over and over we have used the DJI over the course of 1904-1914 as an analogy to emerging markets (via EEM as a proxy) from 2004-current. Conversely, we’ve belabored the idea that 1937 and/or 1974 are the best analogies for…...
Massive Break-Out in Trade-Weighted USD vs. SPX Signals Intensification of Global Financial Stress
In the first chart below I show a scatter plot of the weekly returns in the trade-weighted USD (USTWBROA; y-axis) vs. gold (x-axis) dating back 20 years into 1995. The red dot is this week’s data point. Note that this…...
Gold’s Cycle Low Is In; The Only Question is the Path, Duration & Magnitude of Upside that Follows
On 9/29/15 I put together a detailed post on what appeared to be the an imminent break-out b/t 30-yr (TYX) and 10-yr (TNX) U.S. treasury rates. While I understand most think of the curve steepening vs. flattening in terms of 10s2s,…...
Channeling Wayne Gretzky
Over the past few months we’ve outlined in increasing detail and conviction within the site’s bear market category that the global bull cycle from 2009 had likely come to its end in 2015. The framework we’ve used in building that case…...
Nimr al-Nimr as Franz Ferdinand (Echoes of 1914 Update)
As far back as 7/23/15, three weeks before the CNH devaluation and a full four weeks before global risk assets began plunging, I laid out what I thought was a compelling case for the period of 2004-2015 for emerging market equities…...
Unveiling a New (Bullish) Framework for 2016
I generally believe the name of the game when it comes to my investment process is to idea-generate objective, fact-based historical frameworks – be they statistical, technical, analog or all of the above – that help map out various contingencies of how…
China’s Depression Set to Intensify in the Early Part of 2016?
Based on the significant deterioration over the past year or two in electricity production in China alone, some might assume the country is in depression. Comparing the SSEC’s decline off its Jun-15 high to the move the SPX took off…...
Looking in All the Wrong Places: Why Global Equities are Set to Collapse (Part 2)
Last Thurs in this post we explained that we felt that the DAX was foreshadowing a major global equity collapse along the lines of that witnessed in 1937 or 1974. In that post, we used this analog to justify the point…...
Looking in All the Wrong Places: Why Global Equities Are Set to Collapse
To say Draghi underwhelmed today would be an understatement; EUR is +300 bps and DAX is -450 bps while USD is +200 bps, the US long bond is -225 bps and SPX is -100 bps. I hold no position in any…...