Nikkei Faces Critical Resistance, What Would a Break Above Do?
As we’ve said all along, 14K seemed like a likely upside target for the Nikkei this year. Now that we’re there, what do we do? To be honest, we’ve not been sure and have vacillated back/forth b/t a new secular bull beginning…...
PMs Experienced a Crash of Sorts in April, Now What?
I’m not convinced that when an asset experiences a crash/mini-crash-like event as PMs did in April that they immediately bottom and begin a sustained thrust higher like nothing happened. Such technical destruction tends to result in highly volatile bottoming processes…....
Gold at its Most Critical Juncture Since 1999 Secular Lows; About to Begin Out-Performing Again?
The chart below plots the ratio of the SPX vs. gold. As of mid 2011 that ratio had declined by ~90% from its 1999 highs, defining the opposing secular bear and bull markets for the SPX and gold, respectively, over…...
Global Macro Overview
In the charts below the following noteworthy events are occurring: Mega-cap gold miner ABX is at 20-year support as well as its 2008 panic lows while its YoY is more negative than it’s ever been at -56% The ratio of the…...
Isn’t the USD Supposed to Drive PMs?
A few weeks back we plotted the Yen against various PMs in this post and suggested the latter had to “catch down” to the former given 1) they have tended to act as leading indicators for one another’s fair value, with…
Copper’s Technicals
A few weeks back when the metal stood at ~$3.50 we had a post on copper noting its technicals looked reasonably weak and if our read was correct, it had the potential to fall to ~$2. We update that technical set-up…...
Evolving Thoughts on How PMs Might Work into the Overall Macro Framework
Here’s a chart originally shown the other day comparing silver’s move from 1967-1973 vs. 2010-2014. The two share a good deal of similarity. If the pattern recognition is correct, silver might presumably begin to base in the $19-$20 area in the next few weeks,…...
How Bearish is Gold Sentiment?
Not all that bearish, at least in the context of history, when gold is in a bear market, according to SentimenTrader. In other words, public opinion can sour much further than it already has, and stay that way, when the…
Where do Gold Miners Stand after All the Carnage in PMs?
Wanted to update my thoughts on gold miners after precious metals have been absolutely annihilated lately. As you might remember we have been short and/or avoiding this group for a very long time dating back to posts like this and this when…...
Updated Silver Analog
Updated to reflect prices at ~$26.15 this week. One word – kaboom. Likely headed much lower to that aforementioned $13-$18 range....