Tightest One-Year Hi-Lo Range in Silver on Record
Using monthly prices, the spread b/t silver’s hi/lo price over the past 12 months now stands at ~7.3%. That’s the tightest (smallest) spread in history dating back to the post-Bretton Woods era that began in 1971 when Nixon abandoned the…...
PM VOL Compression
Below I plot gold and the spread b/t its 48 month high-low price range, which now stands at < 22%. Note that historically such a low spread is quite uncommon. In fact, there are only three other environments in which…...
How Does Bitcoin Not Reach $1M+ in 2018?
Haven’t updated my thoughts on Bitcoin (BB: XBT) in quite some time. I’m going to simply re-present the same set-up I did in our original thesis on XBT way back in Feb-17 when it was printing $1K, not the $20K it reached…...
How Historic Bubbles End
The selling in Bitcoin has been relentless since its 12/17/17 peak. Moreover, since then, its rallies have been listless and lacking in vigor. It all adds up to a major deviation in the road-map I had envisioned for the asset relative…...
Has Bitcoin Stalled Out?
Our last piece on Bitcoin (Bloomberg: XBT) was this post on 11/1/17. Included in it were two major conclusions: A major break-out in/around early Dec-17 was likely, akin to silver in Aug-79, where upside would begin to accelerate That upside had the chance to…...
The Case for Nikkei 40K in 2018
In mid-October I updated my thinking on the Nikkei, asking in this post whether its break above quarter-century resistance meant it was finally “game-on” for the region’s much beleaguered equities after what seemed to be an enduring, generational secular bear…
Trust: How Low Can you Go?
Occasionally I venture over to the Pew Research Center and review some of their polling data and related commentary covering a myriad of different issues of concern to US citizens. Numerous Pew polls go back many decades, making some of…...
What is Bitcoin Discounting?
On 2/24/17 I presented the site’s first post on Bitcoin (Bloomberg: XBT). In it, I compared silver’s set-up over the 1971-1980 period to XBT’s since 2010. In concluding I suggested the chart-based similarities of the two assets made XBT well-positioned to enjoy…...
Macro Round-Up
Let’s start with FX as it’s ultimately the most important driver when it comes to major inflection points and cycles in global macro. Here, as I noted in early August, the USD (via the DXY Index) continues to appear as if…...
Multiple Years of USD Work Suggests Another Secular Peak in Place
Back in March-2015 we highlighted the chart below when the USD was approaching ~100 and noted that at this price level the currency was nearing major long-term resistance line (1) and that it had spent very little time above that resistance…...