Crude: 1980-1990…2008-2018
Recall this mid-May post on the relationship b/t crude and gold. Therein, I also spoke about crude on its own, as follows: “What’s also interesting about crude since 2008 is how closely its cycle resembles the period from 1980-summer-1987.” I presented…...
Set-Up for Uranium Looks Bullish
Few realize it, but the US uranium industry filed a Section 232 petition with the US Department of Commerce (DoC) in Jan-18 seeking relief from the harmful consequences of uranium imports, almost all of which come from state-owned, sponsored or…...
Speed & Ferocity of Commodity Decline vs. Stocks Since 2008 is Historic
I’ve recently discussed the speed and ferocity of the relative decline in commodities vs. stocks since the former, via the CRB Index, peaked in 2008 vs. the DJI. At the ratio’s recent low in Jan-18 it had fallen > 81% vs….
Incorporating Tactical Precision into our Big-Picture Silver Work
I’ve recently written extensively about why I believe silver is poised for a window of out-sized upside this year, if even it comes in a brief window of time like 1987’s 65% rally, which occurred in two months. This thesis is largely…
Crude-Gold Relationship at an Important Juncture
In early 2016 amid the global commodity/EM crash the ratio of crude oil vs. gold reached a historic, ~135-yr low, per the chart below. However, per the falling resistance in the monthly chart above, as well as the more detailed…
Ag Commodity Complex Historically Oversold
Like nearly all of the commodity complex ex crude, the Ag portion of the space [via the S&P GSCI Ag Index: (SPGSAGD)] put in an all-time high bubble top in Mar-11 with the the YoY on the SPGSAGD first entering negative…...
Multi-Year Cyclical Peak for EM Equities Likely in Place
Before we dig into this post’s declarative title, let’s revisit the genesis EM work that got us to this point today. Specifically, I mean the 1/2/17 post that proclaimed EM equities, though likely mired in an ongoing secular bear, were nonetheless about…...
Commodity Secular Bears: A Century’s Worth of Historical Perspective
It’s Apr-18. That means we’re at the 7-yr anniversary of the global commodity super-cycle peak of 2011. This offers a neat and convenient time-based milestone upon which to assess the unrelenting carnage in the group since that peak and how it…...
Growing Dossier of Bullish Silver Analytics
In recent weeks I’ve begun to note the historically tight hi/lo price ranges within the PM complex, first noting both gold and silver’s compressed 48-mo ranges here, and then silver’s 12 mo range here. Historically speaking, such compression has been indicative…...
Oilfield Services Attractive on Numerous Relative Fronts
One could spend a few hours cycling through charts of various US equity industries, both on an absolute and relative basis vs. the SPX, and find very little to get excited about. They simply all look the same – nearly…...