USDJPY Testing 35-Year Resistance
Below we have weekly close and monthly HLC views of USDJPY. On each we find lines (1) and (2) resistance. Line (1) is 35-year resistance for USDJPY dating back to ~1978. Combined with line (2) which runs to ~200, the…...
DJI Both Vying for and Augmenting Copper’s Status as the Nikkei’s Rosetta Stone
Over two years ago we began highlighting the similarities b/t the way the copper and the Nikkei ended their secular bears over the 1989-2002 and 1989-2008 periods, respectively. Specifically, we focused on the last few years in each of those…...
Repeating Pattern in Long Bond Price Suggests its Decline (Yield Rise) to Accelerate
Following up on what we envisioned as its peak (and rates’ trough) from our Feb-2015 post on the subject, at the present time the price of the 30 yr UST is replicating a pattern that has historically signaled the onset…...
Nikkei Short-Termism (Part 2)
I wanted to build off the simple short-termist statistical analysis on the Nikkei posted earlier today with a similar analog/technical round-up on the index as well. What we’re trying to do today is tie our short-term views on the index…...
Analog Update
Below is a quick update to our recent pivot point analog post on the Nikkei a few weeks ago in which we outlined our belief that the BoJ was unlikely to expand the scope of its QE program at its next…...
4/30 or 5/21?
The BoJ has upcoming monetary policy meetings/announcements as follows. I consider the latter schedule very important v-a-v our ongoing assessment of the Nikkei’s progress relative to our 6 mo RoC framework. Specifically, I find the 4/30 and 5/21 policy dates…...
Something Amiss in Gold
This past weekend I pieced together this global macro & cycle post and in it, called out gold as one of a few commodities (along with crude) that appeared to have begun a renewed phase of downside. Specifically, I cited gold…...
Europe Relative Strength Worth Monitoring
In our 2015 working thesis post we highlighted the interesting technical set-up in Europe. Specifically, we highlighted this ratio chart of the STOXX600 vs. SPX which was sitting on 25-yr channel support at the time and suggested if ever Europe had…...
Global Macro & Cycle Round-Up
Last week we highlighted the USD and the critical long-term swing resistance it was pressing against. As it turns out, the USD blew past that resistance later in the week, per the chart below. In that chart, note that said…...
Potential for Sustained Yuan Weakness Likely Signals End of 20-Year Global Economic Paradigm, Nascent Beginnings of New One
The Chinese Yuan, and all of its concomitant strength, was likely the most important global macro asset of the past 20 years, 1994 to present day. It effectively defined a global economic paradigm with the following implications for the West…...