The DAX Bear Rolls On
Here’s an update to the analog first presented in this post whereby we compared the DAX off its Apr-15 highs to the bear paths it took during its 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 bears. The current path (black) is updated to reflect…...
Analog Update: Drift, Consolidate & Pivot
It’s been three weeks since I’ve updated my mid-cycle pause analog framework and a month since I did so in great detail. It’s time to update our progress. Here’s the SPY since its May-15 peak (black) vs. all of the DJI’s paths…...
No Good Bulls
Below I plot last week’s AAII reading for bulls. At just 19%, there are among the fewest % of bullish respondents in the survey’s history dating back to the early 90s. Indeed, there have only been 17 other readings this…...
Assessing the Recent Breadth & Volume Thrusts in U.S. Equities
In the chart below I plot the SPX in the top pane along with NYSE intermediate-term breadth and volume momentum oscillators in middle and lower panes, respectively. In early Mar-16 both of the latter oscillators concurrently generated prints > 200…...
Analog Update
Here’s an update to our mid-cycle pause into a blow-off rally analog, but with a slight change. In the previous analog we plotted the path taken off the May-15 high and compared it to the paths taken during 1926-1927, 1953-1954…...
Recent Renewal in Gold Upside Fits Our Historically Bullish Framework but Metal Faces Major Near-Term Test
On 1/18/16 I declared in this post that gold’s cycle low was in and only the path, duration and magnitude of any upside move was in question. Prior to that declaration, we emphasized over and over during the latter parts of…...
Taking the Extremely Illogical to The Logical Extreme
In Jan, then in Mar and then twice in Apr of this year (once here and another here) I attempted to build a compelling historical case for the past year of increased VOL-based consolidation in US equities being emblematic of similar pauses in 1926-1927, 1953-1954 and…...
Early 2016’s Out-Performance in Gold vs. Other Commodities Signals New Bull Market for the Metal
In this 2/23/16 post we asked whether or not a sustained upside move in gold could continue to occur without other commodities in general also participating. In short, history suggested the answer to that question was yes. What we did not do in…...
This Has Only Happened Prior to the Plaza Accord & the Global Real Estate Bubble
As of Dec-15 the spread between the trailing 56 month (an objective reference point: gold peaked 56 months ago on a monthly closing basis in Aug-11) rates of change in the USD and gold reached in excess of 67% (i.e.,…...
CNY Cross vs. Gold Highly Informative, Signals Beginning of New Global Macro Regime
In the chart below I plot CNY vs. gold. The cross has been in a downward sloping channel b/t lines (1) and (2) dating back to 1996. Further, via the vertical blue lines, note that every major pivot in the prevailing…...