Is Barron's Call for a Credit Crisis in China Correct?

Is Barron’s Call for a Credit Crisis in China Correct?

Two weeks ago Barron’s made what appeared to be a bold call for a credit crisis in China. They all but suggested that the probability of a Depression-style event was either rising or imminent. But, similar to their call to…...

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Recent Divergence in Equity/Commodity Performance Not Atypical in Context of History

Recent Divergence in Equity/Commodity Performance Not Atypical in Context of History

In the scatter-plot below I show the 2 Yr RoC in the SPX (Y-axis) vs. the 2 Yr Roc in the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) (X-Axis) dating back to 1986. In the last few weeks the plot has been clustering…...

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Will Emerging Market Underperformance Ever Cease?

Will Emerging Market Underperformance Ever Cease?

I’ve been very mute on the topic of EMs for most of the site’s history. The only topic of conversation that has been seen on these pages has revolved around the idea that the decade long bull market in commodities…...

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Philippine PSE Composite Portending Heightened Global Instability Again?

Philippine PSE Composite Portending Heightened Global Instability Again?

The Philippine PSE Composite faces material long-term resistance lines (1) and (2) in the chart below. It’s been at these lines where the Asian financial crisis of 1997 began, where the U.S. tech bubble explosion accelerated in 2000 and where…...

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Big Trouble in Little Thailand?

Big Trouble in Little Thailand?

Filtered for a few items this morning on the Thai SET index in Thailand. Weekly close at least 700 bps < weekly high YoY >20% Looking for a massive reversal off a stretched bull cycle. Anybody find other instances interesting…...

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The SSEC Likely Continues Lower Though Its Irrelevancy Continues to Grow

The SSEC Likely Continues Lower Though Its Irrelevancy Continues to Grow

We’ve been of the opinion that if the SSEC were to continue lower, it would not necessarily be indicative of an imminent global slow-down/recession/equity collapse. That thesis is largely derived from the chart below, which plots the path the SSEC…

SSEC Finds itself at Another Important Support Zone as FXI Faces Resistance

SSEC Finds itself at Another Important Support Zone as FXI Faces Resistance

All the way back on August 27th we noted the SSEC was in the process of breaking below long-term support dating back to 1994. At the time, we noted that while such a break was unlikely to be an incremental…

China Back in News with Stimulus Rumors as Ratio of the SPX vs. SSEC at Major Long-Term Resistance

One of the more compelling set-ups I’ve presented in a while when you think about it in the context of what we know / think we know and the recent rumors of a new Chinese stimulus plan! The chart below…...

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As the World Remains Enamored with China and the SSEC, Malaysian Equities are at All-Time Highs

The chart below is the Malaysian KLSE Compsosite index.  It correlates quite will with the EWM ETF. In the chart below we can see the index has broken trend-line resistance (1) and is registering new all-time highs. It is currently in the…...

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Time to buy Chinese Companies Listed in the U.S.?

The chart below shows FXI on a weekly basis. FXI has been bouncing on trend-line support (1) for the past few weeks. This has been “the” line in the sand for FXI since 2005 and has produced many sizeable rallies…