Market Nearly Perfectly on Track to Deliver 15% Median, One-Year Gain as Suggested Last August
On August 15 last year in this post we noted that if the market closed that week above 12,982 there was a 91% chance it would be higher one year later, with a median expected gain of 15%. The market closed…
This Stock is Attempting a Break-out From 15-Year Channel Resistance
F is presented on a weekly basis below. The stock is pressing the top end of 15-year channel resistance, or line (1). This line has turned the stock away 4x since the late 90s. The overall channel has been in…...
This Stock Sits at 24-Year Support
CLF on a weekly basis below. Had put this on my radar to pick up at $16 but got preoccupied with other things late last week and missed. Regardless, the $16 target was defined by 24-year support line (1) in…...
Gold at its Most Critical Juncture Since 1999 Secular Lows; About to Begin Out-Performing Again?
The chart below plots the ratio of the SPX vs. gold. As of mid 2011 that ratio had declined by ~90% from its 1999 highs, defining the opposing secular bear and bull markets for the SPX and gold, respectively, over…...
Up Nearly 60% in Six Months, Nikkei Has Reached Our 14K Price Target for 2013
We became bullish on the Nikkei as far back as last June at the global equity / EZ-crisis lows and began to increasingly pound the table on that thesis as 2012 wore on as posts here and here suggest. Last December when the…
Global Macro Overview
In the charts below the following noteworthy events are occurring: Mega-cap gold miner ABX is at 20-year support as well as its 2008 panic lows while its YoY is more negative than it’s ever been at -56% The ratio of the…...
What to Make of the Recent Decline in Euro Financials?
Put this together yesterday, failed to get it posted. Anyhow, believe it’s time to over-weight this group again, as we did last summer before it was trendy to “buy Europe“. That call led to huge alpha being generated by being…...
This Sleepy Industry Could Begin to Out-Perform
The ratio of the DJ Electricity Index vs. SPX is plotted below. The ratio appears to have broken out from a bullish descending wedge pattern last week. A similar pattern formed b/t 2000-2004. When it completed and broke out, the…...
Relative Out-Performance Opportunity in this Industry
I like mobile telcom and telco equipment. Look at all the charts below. The first two are the DJ US Mobile Telcom Index and the ratio of that index vs. the SPX. Both have broken out. Next, look at the…...
Shiller P/E Suggests Any Additional Valuation Expansion Engineered by Fed Could Result in a Parabolic Move Higher for Equities
In the chart below note that the Shiller P/E currently stands at a line of demarcation. Historically, any further expansion in SPX valuations has coincided with parabolic moves higher and/or bubbles including the late 20s, mid 90s and the 2002-2007 global…...