Accelerated Domestic Equity Upside (2013 Repeat?)
I generally try to avoid granular, shorter-term chart analysis, but I’m going to do just that in the one presented below because the analysis comes in the context of corroboratory evidence for a broader framework and thesis. Either way, note that…...
EU Big Picture: Reverberations From 1992 & the Maastricht Treaty
Headed into the BREXIT vote on 6/23/16 we began to discuss the ratio of the STOXX600, Europe’s equivalent of the SPX, relative to the SPX itself. Posts on the topic, both before and after the BREXIT vote, can be found…...
Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update
It’s now been over a year since I originally presented the “mid-cycle pause” analog framework in this post. In addition to crossing the one-year anniversary for introducing this framework, I haven’t had a new post on the topic for two months, so…...
The Race to Seven Digits?
Let’s revisit our 2/24/17 post on XBT and its resemblance to PMs, specifically silver, in the 1960s-1980s. In that post we basically suggested that XBT since 2010 has been highly similar to silver from the 1960-1980 era on a chart/pattern…...
Round-Tripping on the SHCOMP
I reviewed China in a Dec-16 post, focusing on what at the time seemed to be a building case for out-sized moves in USDCNY and the SHCOMP and largely predicated on how the ratio chart b/t these two items seemed to…...
Overbought?
Hearing a lot about how over-bought US equities are lately. Much of the clamor is related to the relentless sprint higher since 11/8/16 and the election of Trump. However, if one can accept the assumption that the cycle underway is…
Analog/Cycle Update
The “pause” the market experienced from May-15 until later last year, whereby it traded in a tight sideways range for a little over a year without falling meaningfully, has but three historical precedents going back to the 1800s. Near identical…...
2012 Redux: Surging US Price Momentum Suggests 90%+ Chance the DJI Will Be Higher in a Year
On 8/15/12 I penned a piece that suggested the DJI had a 90%+ (91% to be exact) probability of being higher one year out with a median expected gain of ~15%. The nuts and bolts of that summer-2012 analysis and…...
EM Secular Bear Remains, but Large Cyclical Rally Likely in Early Innings
Emerging markets, via MXEF (MSCI EM Index), peaked in Oct-07 at ~1,300. Today, some ~480 weeks and over nine years later, it stands at ~887, or 32% below its Oct-07 high. Throughout the entirety of that elapsed time period MXEF…...
Counting Both Up & Down
The markets have rallied very nicely as of late. I could do another mid-cycle pause analog update, but I tend to do a lot of those, and am frankly tired of looking at those charts for the time being. Instead…...