TED Spreads Breaking Above 30 Years of Resistance Signals Need for Immediate CB Intervention
In the chart below I plot TED spreads in the top panel (a topic initially visited yesterday), the SPX in the middle panel and gold in the bottom panel, all on a weekly basis. As can be seen in the…...
USD Peaking vs. Commodities, Gold Breaking Out vs. Commodities
In the chart below note the CRB Index, though well into its breach, at least appears to be bottoming on a relative basis vs. the USD, as the ratio b/t the two reaches ~30 year support. There’s a little bit…...
SPX Action Day Before and Day of FOMC Indicative of Structurally Weak Market
On Tues and Wed, or the day before and the day of the FOMC decision on monetary policy, the SPX rose by at least 100 bps. That’s incredibly rare and has happened only five other times in modern history as…...
Repeating Pattern in the Russell 2000 Suggests End of Bull Cycle Upon Us
I believe the R2K has been in the process of completing a major topping pattern since early 2014, per the chart below, that is similar to the tops it put in place in 1997-1998 and 2006-2008. Each of those patterns takes…...
At 74 Months, This is the Second Longest Bull Cycle in History
We began discussing the length of the current bull cycle in Jul-12 in this post; at the time we were at 34 months in duration. In an attempt to be objective, as some will define cycle length to suit some…...
How & Why The Chinese Are Using Comex to Crush Paper Gold Prices While Simultaneously Laying the Groundwork for CNH to Become the World’s Next Reserve Currency
ZH has had much good commentary in recent months on the explosion in Comex open interest in gold (GC) relative to the amount of registered/deliverable physical held in related vaults, noting as recently as late NOV that the ratio had just…...
Looking in All the Wrong Places: Why Global Equities are Set to Collapse (Part 2)
Last Thurs in this post we explained that we felt that the DAX was foreshadowing a major global equity collapse along the lines of that witnessed in 1937 or 1974. In that post, we used this analog to justify the point…...
Miners Held Steady as Gold Reached a New Low this Week
Courtesy of ST the following occurred this week: Even with gold itself hitting a new low, the gold mining stock indexes are at least 5% above their own lows. The only other times this has happened, using the HUI Gold…...
Looking in All the Wrong Places: Why Global Equities Are Set to Collapse
To say Draghi underwhelmed today would be an understatement; EUR is +300 bps and DAX is -450 bps while USD is +200 bps, the US long bond is -225 bps and SPX is -100 bps. I hold no position in any…...
What are the Implications of the SPX Finally Correcting >10% in August After Nearly Three Years of Uninterrupted Upside?
In May-14 I discussed here that the magnitude and duration of the SPX rally off its 10/3/11 low w/o a 10% correction was turning into one of history’s biggest such moves. In a follow-up post on the same topic in Oct-15 after it had…...