What can We Learn by Comparing the SPX Sell-off From April’s Highs to Every other Major Top in History?
A few recent posts have focused on the 1900-1950 period where the 100%/50% rule was the norm – 100% cyclical rally, 50% cyclical bear. Here’s a chart showing that. The point was to highlight that period as a good template…...
Repeating Pattern in the Ratio of Copper vs. Gold Suggesting Another Fall 2008 Scenario?
We’ve commented on the ratio of copper vs. gold a few times over the past few months including here and here. The ratio tends to be a good proxy for global economic activity and risk levels. Prior posts have centered around the…
Bond / Stock Ratio Approaching a Level that has Coincided with Equity Tops Since 2007
The chart below plots the ratio of the 10 Yr UST price vs. the SPX in the top pane and the SPX in the bottom pane. When the ratio b/t the two has approached trend-line (1) since 2007, as it is doing…
Yet Another Data Point Registered with Today’s Gains (Should they Hold) that Suggests the Potential for a Major Move Higher over the Near or Intermediate-Term
This week the market was down each of the days Monday-Thursday and erased all of those losses on Friday with its large rally. This happened on 7/13 as well and has now happened only six times in history. We noted…...
If They Can’t Sell Hard & Fast Right Here, Stocks Are Likely Coiling For a Big Move Higher
We’ve posted repeatedly about the need for stocks, given the historical limitations of cyclical bull market rallies within secular bears, to sell hard and fast at this juncture if they are going to fall at all. We did that here,…
Additional Analysis of Historical Cycles Dating Back to 1896 Suggests a Near-Term Inflection Point for Markets
Wanted to dive further into the historical analysis of cyclical bull/bear cycles within secular bears. As we noted just a few days ago, the rally from the March 2009 lows appears extended in both magnitude and duration at this point…...
Recent Under-Performance in Small Caps Likely Portends an Inflection Point in Broader Risk Appetite
The 26 week RoC in the ratio of the R2K vs. SPX is -768 bps as of yesterday’s close. In the top pane of the chart below we highlight where small caps have under-performed large caps to this degree of greater since…
SPX Hasn’t Registered Many Positive Days Recently…Does This Suggest Anything about the Future?
If down today, the SPX will have been up only 35% of the trailing 20 trading days. Through history, the market goes up ~55% of the time on any given day. Regardless, the chart below shows other periods since the…...
Sensex Near a Break Out From Three Year Consolidation Pattern
For those that would like additional background on this topic, please refer to our earlier post on the subject. Otherwise, in the chart below, the Sensex appears to be attempting a break-out from a three-year flag/consolidation pattern. As of yet, NO…...
If This Remains a Secular Bear, Cycle Analysis Dating Back to 1896 Suggests the Current Cyclical Rally is Extended in Magnitude and Duration
First chart below presents the DJIA on a weekly basis dating back to 1896 for pure context. The chart below is more important as it zooms in on the 1896-1950 period. This period was not unlike that experienced over the…...