Systematic Models Signaling Long or Short Right Here?
Close, but no cigar on the short signal. Only 9% in incremental complacency and we’ll get there on the systematic model. Probably down to about two-four trading days in terms of time. After that, we need to see volatility (choppy…...
If the Dow Closes above 12,982 this Week, Data Back to 1896 Says There’s a 91% Chance it Will Be Higher in a Year by 15% (Median Gain, 63 Examples)
Pretty incredible analysis and statistically in-line with what I’ve noted recently – when the market’s price momentum, as gauged by its one year RoC / YoY is surging as much as it currently is (+22% this week) it typically means you’re in…...
Recent SPX Rally Has Taken it Up to Falling Resistance
Prior to the market’s ~50 bps reversal lower into the close today we put up a post re: negative divergences b/t prices and momentum in the SPY 60 min chart, suggesting that in the very near-term, such divergences suggested a…
Getting Granular: Negative Divergences b/t Price and Momentum in the SPY
Never want to focus too much on posts like this or make them too frequent as it’s often overly myopic to do so, but thought it’d be worthwhile sharing. In the chart below in region (A) the SPY has recently…
Potential Set-Up for Equities into Jackson Hole, Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling on the ESM 9/12 and the Fed Meeting Concluding 9/13
I hope you’ve picked up on my tone becoming less bullish in the near-term. I’ve not become bearish, but I have become less sanguine about the potential for the market to rally at escape velocity speed in the near-term. In…...
Additional Thoughts on the VIX
Yesterday the VIX crossed below 14 and closed below that threshold for the first time in over a year. It’s done this (i.e., close below 14 for the first time in over a year) only two other times in history…...
Is 2012 for the Nikkei Analogous to 2002 for Gold?
What is the most absurd vision of the future we can come up with right now? What asset class or region seems least likely to embark on the next great secular bull market (or bear market)? Think back to the…...
VIX Approaching Long-Term Support; Signaling Global Risks About to Flare?
In the chart below the VIX is approaching long-term support line (1). Since 2007, it has been along this line where the VIX has experienced its most notable rips and the SPX its most notable dips and tops. Should the VIX…
The VIX Has Compressed Notably of Late; What about other “Complacency” Indicators?
This is the third post I’ve put up behind the “protected” wall today, so hopefully you guys can give me a break tomorrow if no such posts appear. Anyhow, much has been made of the recent drop in the VIX,…...
Semis Have Badly Under-Performed the Broader Market for Nearly Two Years; What are the Implications?
The implications of the Philly SOX Index under-performing the broader market severely are similar to other recent posts we’ve made about the Russell 2000’s under-performance vs. the SPX as of late as well as how low the ratio of copper vs. gold…