What does the SSEC Continue to See that Global Mining Plays Don’t?
We had a post the other day that suggested price action in the SSEC doesn’t carry much informational content value anymore. To some degree, YTD results justify this view with the SPX up ~12% and the SSEC down ~7%. However, what if this view…
SSEC Just Broke Below Major Support Dating Back to 1994
With last night’s ~175 bps decline to start the week, the SSEC has now decisively broken below a nearly 20 year support line (1) dating back to 1994, in the chart below. Incredibly, the index now stands ~66% off its…
Taking a Look at Market Leadership Groups
The chart below plots the ratio of the SPX vs. XLF. When the ratio falls, financials are out-performing the broader market. Since 2010, when the ratio has fallen to line (1) support, it has marked almost perfectly, broader market tops in…...
SPX Price Action from This Monday Resembles that from Other Turning Points Since 2007
Into Monday’s close on 8/20 we put up this post that suggested the statistical aspects of that day’s price action were bearish, and in-line with the statistical characteristics of areas since 2007 that were at, or very close to, major…
Time for Equities to be Worried?
Chart below shows locations on the SPX where each of the following are fulfilled: 1) Intra-day high represents a new one-year high 2) Intra-day high at least 50 bps > previous day close 3) Intra-day low at least 75 bps…
Systematic Model Update
The model generated its first sell signal yesterday, 8/20, since March 12th. As I highlight in the chart below, this means NOTHING until one of two things happen (or both): 1) We see lots of choppiness around this proximate top 2)…...
The Dow Has Never Had Four Consecutive Annual Gains in a Secular Bear Market / Are Central Banks Breaking Historical Market Cycles?
Do you believe this is a secular bear market? If you do, take note that the Dow has never registered four consecutive annual gains in a secular bear market – EVER. And yet, it was up in each of 2009,…
Is The Russell 2000 Now Working on a 1995 Style Break-Out?
Our earliest posts on the R2K were directionally bearish in nature. On 5/30 we suggested the index’s path of least resistance was likely down. A month later on 6/27 we then suggested downside risks remained elevated over the intermediate-term. Neither…...
Was October 2011 a Major Low for the SPX? Crazy to Suggest SPX 1,685-1,800 by Winter 2013?
Though it was very abrupt and amounted to only ~20%, the sell-off of last summer/fall in the SPX does share statistical similarities to history’s other major sell-offs and bear markets. When we became aware of this last year (and we…...
This Mystery Asset Looks to Share Two Bubble Tops Strikingly Similar to Silver’s Bubble Tops in 1980 and 2011
I’m not going to reveal what the top chart is yet as the whole point of this analysis is to clear our mind of biases and facilitate fluid and objective thought outside of the box. The lower chart I…...