WMT Attractive on a Relative Basis
Suggested a long in WMT on 11/18/15 when the stock was ~$60 in this post. With today’s gains the stock is now printing ~$63, so ~+500 bps since then. By contrast, the SPX is -300 bps over the same period. That’s…...
China’s Depression Set to Intensify in the Early Part of 2016?
Based on the significant deterioration over the past year or two in electricity production in China alone, some might assume the country is in depression. Comparing the SSEC’s decline off its Jun-15 high to the move the SPX took off…...
ROC in TED Spreads Now Unbearable to System & Suggests Imminent Global Deflationary Collapse Ex Major CB Intervention Program
TED spreads continue blowing out today, reaching 41 bps! Over the past two weeks they have now climbed ~60%. This two-week RoC is near unprecedented since 2007 save for the following discreet events: Mar-08 Sep-08 May-10 Aug-11 Make note, in…...
Long Radio-active, Coal Finally Looks Attr-active on a Relative Basis
A long, long time ago in Aug-12 we wondered out loud if the world no longer needed coal. We went on to suggest a month later in Sep-12, mightily incorrectly we might add, that coal stocks could begin out-performing. Since both…...
Bucking Seasonals, The SPX Printed Two Consecutive Down Days of at Least 150 bps in December
Last Thurs and Fri the SPX printed two consecutive down days of at least 150 bps, reversing the pre and day of FOMC meeting ramp, as our data suggested would occur. Though our data was confirmed with the subsequent weakness,…...
TED Spreads Breaking Above 30 Years of Resistance Signals Need for Immediate CB Intervention
In the chart below I plot TED spreads in the top panel (a topic initially visited yesterday), the SPX in the middle panel and gold in the bottom panel, all on a weekly basis. As can be seen in the…...
CNH Weakness Regime = Inexorable March Toward Greater Global Financial Stress
In the chart below I plot the following over the past year: USDCNH (inverted to show Yuan weakening; white) JNK (pink) Deutsche Bank (DB) 5 Yr CDS (inverted, so decline = CDS climbing; orange) SPX (red) TED spread (inverted, so decline…...
SPX Action Day Before and Day of FOMC Indicative of Structurally Weak Market
On Tues and Wed, or the day before and the day of the FOMC decision on monetary policy, the SPX rose by at least 100 bps. That’s incredibly rare and has happened only five other times in modern history as…...
Putting the “Relative” Thinking Cap On
Have been scanning various industries/companies within those industries in recent weeks looking for areas that offer some combo of safety and/or out-performance opportunities “vs.” and “relative” to the SPX. There are a handful of industries that look very good right…...
Into the Breach for the CRB Index
On 11/16 I highlighted the long-term support the CRB Index was approaching. Three weeks later it has pierced said support. In doing so, it has stepped foot into the “breach”, or what can be seen on the chart below as…...