Draghi Disappointment Unlikely, but Half-Life of Intervention Diminishing
Below you’ll see the ratio of the EUFN (MSCI Euro Financials ETF) vs. XLF (US Financials ETF). Note the long-term downward sloping channel b/t lines (1) and (2) it’s traded in over the period in which we have trading history…....
A Look at Gold Miners
I’ve relentlessly made the case for gold on this site over the past year or so, believing a major bottom was approaching. Less focus has been placed on the miners, but it’s worth visiting that group as the rally they’ve…...
Long Radio-active, Coal Finally Looks Attr-active on a Relative Basis
A long, long time ago in Aug-12 we wondered out loud if the world no longer needed coal. We went on to suggest a month later in Sep-12, mightily incorrectly we might add, that coal stocks could begin out-performing. Since both…...
Putting the “Relative” Thinking Cap On
Have been scanning various industries/companies within those industries in recent weeks looking for areas that offer some combo of safety and/or out-performance opportunities “vs.” and “relative” to the SPX. There are a handful of industries that look very good right…...
Transports Have Put in a Major, Secular Peak vs. the Broader Market
In the chart below note that in late Dec-14 the ratio of the DJ Transportation Index vs. SPX hit ~4.40, a level that has historically been consistent with major, secular peaks. Historically, such peaks have resulted in Transports under-performing the…...
Miners Held Steady as Gold Reached a New Low this Week
Courtesy of ST the following occurred this week: Even with gold itself hitting a new low, the gold mining stock indexes are at least 5% above their own lows. The only other times this has happened, using the HUI Gold…...
Airline Outperformance vs. Railroads to Continue, Accelerate
This post is a spread trade dedicated to two components of the DJ Transportation Index. In the chart below the ratio of the DJ Railroad Index vs. the DJ Airline Index is breaking below key, long-term support lines (1)-(3). Given…...
1998 Redux for Crude?
In these two posts here and here we discussed 1998 as a potential outcome to Aug/Sep’s global VOL in equities whereby strong pivots higher could result in additional, sustained upside to the long-term bull cycle that’s been intact since 2009 (or…...
PMs Appear Green-Lit to Advance
In the chart below take note of the simple fact that the DXY index (USD) appears poised to break down from a consolidation/flag pattern formed by lines (1) and (2) through much of 2015 at inset (A) while at inset (B), it is…...
Clubber Lang May Finally Be Ready to Fight
On 7/29/14 we highlighted Mr. T as an increasingly attractive long. At the time we didn’t openly advocate an immediate position in the name, but said the following: “Would look to purchase T on a break-out this week assuming it…...