Duration & Size Matter
As of right now the SPX has gone 652 days and has rallied 72% without witnessing at least a 10% correction. This move dates back to the summer/fall 2011 mini-crash lows. In terms of duration/magnitude those represent 96th/89th percentile events…...
Gold Offers Favorable Risk/Reward Set-Up, But in Which Direction?
A few weeks ago on 2/19/14 we made a high conviction call to buy gold and related miners. Our thesis in that post was based on two historically bullish price action characteristics that the metal was then exhibiting including: Gold…...
Performance Update for all Chinese Company-Specific Ideas Dating Back to June/July 2013 “SSEC at a Major Low” Call
I’ll do with all our Chinese single-stock ideas dating back to my late June / early July 2013 call that the region’s equities were at a major low (even as Barron’s was calling for a crash), what I also did…...
Performance Update for 2014’s Company-Specific Ideas
I continue to have very little to write about on a day-to-day basis that I haven’t already discussed previously. Ultimately, I think I’ve sliced and diced U.S. markets about as extensively as one can in terms of divining future outcomes;…...
The Conundrum that Remains Gold?
With its 2/13/14 close of $1,302 gold managed to close above its 200 day moving average (MA) for the first time since 2/8/13, or for the first time in over a year. Dating back as far as I have daily…...
Greater Than 90% Probability SPX Higher in 2014 with a Median Expected Gain of ~20%, Reaching at Least 2,100
The beauty of the markets is that everything can be empirically tested against history and nothing need be left to subjectivity. And yet and still, everything (or nearly everything) one can ever find from the soothsayers on CNBC, in Barron’s, the…...
Multi-Year Disparity Between SPX Gains and Actual SPX EPS Growth Alarming
I pointed out a few times late last year as it was underway that the YoY in SPX EPS, according to the monthly Shiller data, was in negative territory for seven consecutive months (Sep 2012-March 2013) even as the SPX…...
Semis On Deck
Our views on semis have evolved as follows over the past year+: 10/15/12: “…we believe semiconductors have more relative downside left vs. the broader market…” 7/16/13: “…we are ready to make a high conviction industry call on semi-conductors and suggest over-weighting the…...
Geniuses Abound
As of late, I took notice that the “dumb” money has been feeling pretty good about the market and its prospects for additional upside. I suppose that happens when stocks go up for five consecutive years, culminating in this year’s…...
More Elaboration on the Potential for the Fireworks Dissipating
At the end of October we had two detailed posts (here’s #1 and here’s #2) that suggested 2014 could very well turn out to be a year that lacked fireworks, unlike every single year since the global equity/debt/real estate peak in…...