Has the Gate Become Sufficiently Narrow?
The history of gold since the 60s is one of major multi-year rallies, followed by major multi-year sell-offs, followed by another leg of major multi-year rallies and so on. Forgive the self-indulgent melodrama, but a quote from Matthew 7:13 might…...
Carry On
Because there’s nothing to see in the Shiller P/E chart below. We are pressing incredibly important statistical boundaries for U.S. equity valuations at the current moment and valuations have exceeded their current level of ~24x only 5x in history, all…...
Multi-Month Consolidation Patterns Set to End in these Macro Assets
The Japanese Yen is at an important juncture. We’ve been writing about this macro asset as far back as June 2012 and the likelihood that it was entering a period of sustained wekaness (and as a result, the Nikkei sustained strength)…....
Additional Details to Build on Yesterday’s Cycle Analysis Post
Yesterday we updated a cycle analysis post originally conducted in mid-August 2012. While the original post from mid-August 2012 suggested the DJIA would be up with 91% probability one year forward (i.e., into mid-August 2013) with a sizable median expected…...
Revisiting Last Year’s Analysis that Foresaw the Rally of 2013 and What it Says about the Future
One of the better pieces of analytical work I’ve done on this site since launching it is this piece from last August. That analysis showed that during 2Q12 the DJIA’s weekly YoY went to >20% in a quarter after being…...
China Single-Stock Long Opportunities Update
CJJD, one of the 12 names from our chart dump 10 days ago, is now in the +90% club with today’s gains. Just wanted to show those who care a quick snapshot of what all 12 stocks from that chart…...
Framework for Assessing Progress of Late June’s Pivot Low in Chinese Equities
On 7/2 we had a post suggesting Chinese equities, in contrast to Barron’s call for a renewed crash/credit crisis, were likely nearing a major low. That call was based on a very simple (and thus elegant) analysis that showed the…...
USD Price Volatility Likely to Expand in Near-Term
The USD’s 52 week RoC is consolidating into a triangle that looks very close to ending, per the image on the right. Last Aug the USD closed at ~81.2 and ~80 in Sep, which puts your current and prospective 52…...
Recent Rally in Crude to Pressure Equities?
SentimenTrader had an interesting analysis on the short and intermediate-term rally we’ve seen in oil this year and when it’s happened in the past, its implications for stocks. They looked at periods in the past when crude has jumped at…...
Reflecting Back on Last August’s Chart Dump of 16 Long Opportunities a Year Later
On August 9th of last year, or nearly a year ago, we had a post detailing favorable/bullish looking technical set-ups for 16 different companies. This is what we said in the post about the opportunities: “…for those looking for long…