The Nikkei’s Price Action Continues to Offer a Veritable Gold Mine of Historical Informational Content
One of the things we have increasingly struggled with is that the Nikkei’s recent price action continues to statistically align with periods of instability and downside in the Dow. Just yesterday we had a post here pointing out as much,…...
The Nikkei’s 99.99th Percentile Price Action
With the Nikkei’s massive move last night it has managed a two-day, +530 bps rally. At the same time, its bull cycle is stretched as the four-year RoC already stands at +44%. In other words, though being deep in the…...
Recent Carnage in Grains Historically Indicative of Sustained, Multi-Year Commodity Bear Markets
Historically, three-day declines of at least 13% in corn as we’ve just witnessed with today’s decline, are indicative of: 1) multi-year corn bear markets 2) multi-year commodity bear-markets per the CRB Commodities are in a bear market and are likely…...
Recent Nikkei Price Action Rare in Context of Nearly 120 Years of Dow Trading History
The Nikkei gained 19.3% in 1Q13. Impressive, no doubt. How impressive? Since the late 1890s the Dow has had only 11 quarters where it’s gained at least 19%, making such occurrences a 2.4/100 event. I present those instances in the…...
Additional Historical Data to Clarify Cycle Type & Location
Last week SentimenTrader had a nice little piece detailing other periods in history where the SPX had gone at least five years before registering a new 10-year high as it did on Thursday. Thursday’s signal was the fourth in history…....
Where’s the Next Great Bull Market?
The first chart below plots the relative value of the Mid-Cap 400 Value Index vs. SPX from 2000-October 2002. This was the bear market coming off the heels of the tech bubble. As the chart suggests – the SPX was…
Big Trouble in Little Thailand?
Filtered for a few items this morning on the Thai SET index in Thailand. Weekly close at least 700 bps < weekly high YoY >20% Looking for a massive reversal off a stretched bull cycle. Anybody find other instances interesting…...
Thoughts on the Two-Year Consolidation in Precious Metals
Remember our alternate way of thinking about silver we presented a few weeks back? That post is right here. In it, we suggested the potential for additional upside in the metal and that the highs from April 2011 were not…...
Solid Chance These Names Lose Half Their Value over the Coming Year?
The technical set-up in the charts below look very appealing from a short standpoint – both companies face long-term channel and/or falling resistance lines. Statistically, correlations suggest there’s a ~80% chance these names trade down over the coming year with…
Though Such an Outcome May Not Be Imminent, Evidence Supporting Another 1929, 1937 or 1987-Style Event is Becoming Robust
As of 3/14 last week the Dow had been up 10 consecutive days. Dating back to the late 1800s there have been 35 such runs, including the most recent. In reality, the signal has only come 13x originally speaking as…...