SSEC Has Another ~20% of Additional Downside and is Likey to Remain in Relative Free-Fall
On the heels of our late Dec-15 post that suggested China’s depression was set to intensify in early 2016, I’ve updated that view via the SSEC plot below. The chart pattern over the past 18 months – base, large run…...
CRB vs. USD Has Reached 40 Year Support, But Can it Hold?
On 12/17/15 in this post we highlighted this chart which showed that the ratio of the CRB Index vs. USD was fast approaching a 30-year support line. In reality, if we extended that support line left into the early 70s…...
USDRUB Breaks out of 18 Year Channel to the Upside (The Loss of Fed Independence)
In the chart below at (A) USDRUB has broken out of a ~18-year channel b/t lines (1) resistance and (2) support to the upside. Every major swing high and low for the pair has come on these respective channel lines over…...
Nimr al-Nimr as Franz Ferdinand (Echoes of 1914 Update)
As far back as 7/23/15, three weeks before the CNH devaluation and a full four weeks before global risk assets began plunging, I laid out what I thought was a compelling case for the period of 2004-2015 for emerging market equities…...
Additional “Relative” Opportunities
On 12/16/15 I outlined in this reasonably detailed post what I thought were a collection of strong relative strength ideas. The overriding conclusion from all of the charts presented in that post was that non-cyclical areas of the world were apt…...
USDCNH Likely to Reach Low $7s Before Any Abatement in Chinese Currency Depreciation
I have talked at length on the site about the deflationary forces behind CNH depreciation vs. the USD. My contention is that so long as a regime of CNH depreciation vs. USD is in place, global risk assets will remain…...
WMT Attractive on a Relative Basis
Suggested a long in WMT on 11/18/15 when the stock was ~$60 in this post. With today’s gains the stock is now printing ~$63, so ~+500 bps since then. By contrast, the SPX is -300 bps over the same period. That’s…...
Russell 2000 Finalizes Bearish Topping Pattern with Significant Breakdown to Start 2016
Per the chart below, with today’s material break-down in global equities, the Russell 2000 appears to have completed a major, bearish, head & shoulders topping pattern that has formed over the past two years. Similar patterns formed around the index’s…...
Silver’s Meridian Line Rests a Good Deal Lower
Per nearly 50 years of history, silver’s meridian line, or line (1) support in the chart below, rests ~30% lower at ~$10. All of silver’s major pivots have came at this line. It consolidated its early 70s ramp in the…...
Unveiling a New (Bullish) Framework for 2016
I generally believe the name of the game when it comes to my investment process is to idea-generate objective, fact-based historical frameworks – be they statistical, technical, analog or all of the above – that help map out various contingencies of how…