We’ve been through PMs fairly extensively as of late (this is our third on the topic in a month vs. eight total in the previous two years). Our most recent work on the space has generally been time-focused. Specifically, we’ve…
Our case(s) for global equity weakness have been laid out in depth dating back to the third week of July beginning with EMs and then moving on to domestic/US. The following posts highlighted our attempt to build a foundation of work for that…...
All the way back in July 2013 we began building a case for being long the SSEC even as Barron’s was then calling for the re-emergence of a crisis in the region. Arguably the most important pillar of our long thesis…...
The operative word here is near. In the chart below the CRB Index is fast approaching long-term support on a monthly basis. Support dates back to the 1999 and 2002 lows for commodities. In addition, the ratio of crude vs. gold…...
On the 60 min chart of USD-denominated Nikkei futures below, the index can be seen to have reclaimed critical support line (1) as of the close of trading yesterday. Upside has continued this AM to solidify that move. Line (1)…...
I will be very surprised if U.S. equities fail to register new lows in the coming days, despite the consensus view to the contrary. In addition to the logic we laid out in our last post explaining why, below we…...
A month ago on 7/23 we used this post to highlight the ominously fascinating cycle similarities b/t the DJI circa 1904-1914 and emerging markets, via EEM, 2004-current; we used the chart below and steps (1)-(10) to set those similarities off in deep…...
I wanted to update some of my Nikkei work, specifically the analogs comparing the DJI from Feb-26 through its Aug-29 top to the Nikkei from May-13 until current. Rather than spend time reviewing the original logic of why it made…...
PMs put in major tops in 2011 and have done nothing but bleed lower since. However, when one considers the magnitude of their run from the early 00s into that top, it’s been very fascinating to see how long the…...
An inverted DJI chart (to force our minds to re-think appearances) seems to be officially breaking out (down) from its bullish (bearish) pattern that’s developed over the past year at the inset. In doing so it also is breaking out (down)…...