Chart Dump of 16 Long Opportunities
Though this market is a crap show at the broad index level, it doesn’t mean there aren’t a ton of opportunities at the company specific level. The notable moves of the past two weeks have come as the out-performers (XLU,…
Commercial Hedgers Love Copper & Large Speculators Hate It; Which Group Usually Gets It Right?
The chart below shows that commercial hedgers have amassed the largest net long position in the metal since 2004. At the same time, large speculators have amassed one of the largest short positions they’ve ever held over the same period….
The VIX Has Compressed Notably of Late; What about other “Complacency” Indicators?
This is the third post I’ve put up behind the “protected” wall today, so hopefully you guys can give me a break tomorrow if no such posts appear. Anyhow, much has been made of the recent drop in the VIX,…...
Semis Have Badly Under-Performed the Broader Market for Nearly Two Years; What are the Implications?
The implications of the Philly SOX Index under-performing the broader market severely are similar to other recent posts we’ve made about the Russell 2000’s under-performance vs. the SPX as of late as well as how low the ratio of copper vs. gold…
What can We Learn by Comparing the SPX Sell-off From April’s Highs to Every other Major Top in History?
A few recent posts have focused on the 1900-1950 period where the 100%/50% rule was the norm – 100% cyclical rally, 50% cyclical bear. Here’s a chart showing that. The point was to highlight that period as a good template…...
This Discount Retailer Looks Set to Run
Will reiterate once again – though the site is macro focused always be prepared to pepper in individual, company specific trading opportunities. SBUX, CMG, FOSL (God were we wrong on that one), RIMM, RGR, etc. In the end, we want to…...
Broad European Indices Have Rallied ~15% Since June…Now What?
The chart below shows a very broad European index, the DJ Euro STOXX 600, on a weekly closing basis. The index tested line (2) support in June and since then has rallied nearly 15%. That rally has brought it to…
Repeating Pattern in the Ratio of Copper vs. Gold Suggesting Another Fall 2008 Scenario?
We’ve commented on the ratio of copper vs. gold a few times over the past few months including here and here. The ratio tends to be a good proxy for global economic activity and risk levels. Prior posts have centered around the…
Bond / Stock Ratio Approaching a Level that has Coincided with Equity Tops Since 2007
The chart below plots the ratio of the 10 Yr UST price vs. the SPX in the top pane and the SPX in the bottom pane. When the ratio b/t the two has approached trend-line (1) since 2007, as it is doing…
Time Almost Up for This Consumer Discretionary Company?
The chart below compares the similarities b/t that of TPX and FOSL. The analysis in that chart is similar to the parallels we drew b/t CMG and SBUX to successfully short the latter into its EPS recently. TPX has now retraced…...