Random Long Opportunity of the Day
DGIT is presented below. The stock finds itself at resistance in the midst of an overall descending wedge pattern, which typically end bullishly. Moreover, this name is part of the media industry. I’ve favored this industry for some time (look…...
Europe No Longer a Critical Global Macro Driver?
Times sure do change. Europe, for all of 2010-2012, was “the” key driver to global macro trends. Everything seemed to revolve around one peripheral country’s crisis after the next. That’s not the case anymore. The phrase “Euro-zone debt crisis” seems…...
How Gold’s Recent Decline Measures Up Against History
In the chart below I plot gold against its 2 Yr RoC. Though it stands at only -15% right now, come August/September when it will be lapping its August/September 2011 highs, its 2 Yr RoC will be ~-35%, assuming steady…...
Analog Update
With respect to working the expected near-term correction on the Nikkei into an overall frame-work, the analog below might be a good foot. In it I compare, yet again, the 1988/1989 Dow vs. 2012/2013 SPX, both being respective 4th/5th consecutive…...
Short-Term Nikkei Thoughts
Short-term Nikkei thoughts, though in the context of a longer-term, more secular view-point. In the chart below I show the Nikkei over the past year on a daily basis and copper in the 2004 time-frame, also on a daily basis…....
SSEC Has Been a Major Under-Performer vs. the SPX, Will it Persist?
In the scatter-plot below I show the 2 Yr RoC for the SSEC (X-axis) vs. the 2 Yr RoC for the SPX (Y-axis). As of this morning they are -30% and +25%, respectively, with major SSEC under-performance occurring over the…...
Is Barron’s Call for a Credit Crisis in China Correct?
Two weeks ago Barron’s made what appeared to be a bold call for a credit crisis in China. They all but suggested that the probability of a Depression-style event was either rising or imminent. But, similar to their call to…...
Recent Divergence in Equity/Commodity Performance Not Atypical in Context of History
In the scatter-plot below I show the 2 Yr RoC in the SPX (Y-axis) vs. the 2 Yr Roc in the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) (X-Axis) dating back to 1986. In the last few weeks the plot has been clustering…...
Shipping Rates Set to Rise?
Add this to the obscure posts category. I’ve never spoken about the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) before but when you do hear about it, if you do at all, it’s usually re: how badly it’s been declining and why that’s…...
When will This Commodity’s Downside End?
Warming up to coffee given the historical tendency for downside to abate when the two year RoC (i.e,. price momentum) reaches the -55% level, as it is now. This is in contrast to our ardent bearishness on the product dating…...