SPX Upside to Resume with USD Break-Down
We first broke this chart out a few weeks ago in this post and have updated it below. Without reinventing the wheel, here’s what we said about the chart in that original post: “Per the plots below, note that the SPX’s…...
Encino Man
Here’s a blast from the past for you. On 1/15/14, or over two years ago, we had this highly compelling and very prescient post that emphatically stated in its title: “GREATER THAN 90% PROBABILITY SPX HIGHER IN 2014 WITH A…...
Looking for the Next Break in the Ongoing Chinese Depression
In late December we noted via this post that the SSEC’s crash off its mid-15 highs to-date was very similar-looking to the path the DJI took of its 1929 high to begin the Great Depression. Here’s an updated version of the analog comparing…...
U.S. Long Bond Yields Threatening Imminent Break of 8-Yr Support, GFC Lows
In the chart below I plot 30-yr U.S. long bond yields over time. A couple things: Yields have traded in a well-defined downward-sloping channel over time Major geo-political/monetary events have occurred when (or as) yields have broken below the green,…...
DAX is Unequivocally in a Major Bear Market
The chart below plots the DAX against off its Apr-15 high vs. the paths it took off its two other most recent and major structural highs, those being the Mar-00 and Oct-07 peaks that led to 65% and 55% bear…
Nigh is the Day of GREXIT?
Much has recently been made about this past weekend’s leak regarding a recent discussion two senior IMF officials had over triggering an “event” that would force Greek to comply with the EU/IMF demands heading into negotiations re: upcoming debt maturities. The timing…...
With White House Geopolitics Out of the Way the Fed Can Now Resume Blowing Asset Bubbles
In early March I discussed the heightened prospects of the past year’s worth of VOL simply being a mid or late cycle pause into what would turn out to be a blow-off, bubble inducing rally over some period of ensuing years…....
Chart Dump
I spent all weekend looking for attractive looking charts across all SPX industries. Below is a dump of the most compelling ones....
Time to Revisit the Airline Out-Performance Idea
One of the calls from this site that I’m most proud of is the long airline thematic I began laying out in spring-12 well before the group took off and well before it was fashionable to own it. Revisit these…...
Protectionism as an Emerging Macro Thematic
Deep and wide is the chasm in philosophical world views that stands between the remaining three candidates – Trump, Clinton or Sanders – for the US presidency. However, that great divide vanishes when it comes to the topic of globalization and…...