Gold, Rarely a Rush
We’ve had two posts on gold over the past few months, one in March and one this week. Both centered around the idea that the metal was either posed or had actually managed to close above its 12 month MA…...
Gold Risk/Reward Set-up Remains Asymmetric
In March of this year I noted in this post that if gold was able to close that month > $1,320 it would have also closed above its 12-month MA for the first time in at least a year (16…...
30 Yr Support on the Long Bond & Its Cycle-Defining History
In the chart below I plot the 30-yr UST price from the early 1980s onward. Note how well-behaved prices are along support line (1) which has been in place since 1985, or nearly 30 years ago! In fact, it is…...
A Quick, but Compelling Set of Triangulated Data Points
Haven’t had a ton to write about lately in a formalized fashion on the site. Most all of our ideas are working so far this year, which is nice. I think I’ve mentioned this before, but if there’s anything I’ve…...
BKS Update
On 5/28 we advocated long positions in BKS based on both a favorable fundamental and technical backdrop. With today’s news re: the planned split of the NOOK media and book retail businesses, the stock is up an impressive ~10%, putting…...
Under-Performance in Apparel/Clothing/Accessories Industry to Continue
LULU cut guidance this morning and finds its stock down ~15% today. This is hardly the extent of the pain this name has suffered though as it’s down 55% since its 2012/2013 peak of ~$80. All we have to say…...
Thin Red Line
Forget everything I’ve said about the Nikkei over the past 12-18 months; all the words, analogs and postulations. Instead, focus on the thin red resistance line (1) in the chart below. It is the only thing that matters to the…...
US Bond Price Downside: Time to Ride the Second Wave?
We began espousing the idea that bonds had peaked on a secular and cyclical basis in spring 2013. While it’s been very fashionable to hold such a view for many, many years now (hyperinflation has been imminent since QE1 in…...
INTC Breaking ~14 Yr Resistance, to Accelerate Outperformance of Semis
In the chart below INTC is breaking above ~14 year resistance line (1). Assuming the week’s gains hold this likely implies that the semi group outperforms on an absolute and relative basis vs. the broader market in accelerated fashion over…...
IBEX to Outperform SPX
In the chart below the ratio of the IBEX vs. SPX is attempting to break above long-term resistance line (1). Look at how well-behaved the ratio b/t these two assets has been across this line historically. Also note the precipitous…...