Could Palladium Weakness Spell Similar Trouble for Equities?
In an earlier post this week we displayed palladium’s ostensible break below multi-year, long-term trend-line support and suggested that break-down would be apt to precipitate accelerated downside in the commodity, as similar break-downs had in the past. Today we present…...
More Nikkei Short-Termism & Analog Update
After correcting ~250 bps into Wednesday 6/10 of this week, the Nikkei rebounded sharply last night. This transition to strength from weakness over the past day resulted in a ~350 bps swing in the U.S. futures contract’s 10 hour RoC…...
Silver Malaise Nearly Unprecedented
What we’re about to do in this post with silver is highly similar to the analysis we presented on China in early Jul-12 in this post where we suggested the region’s equities, despite Barron’s call for a credit crisis to…...
Nikkei Short-Termism (Part 2)
I wanted to build off the simple short-termist statistical analysis on the Nikkei posted earlier today with a similar analog/technical round-up on the index as well. What we’re trying to do today is tie our short-term views on the index…...
Analog Update
Below is a quick update to our recent pivot point analog post on the Nikkei a few weeks ago in which we outlined our belief that the BoJ was unlikely to expand the scope of its QE program at its next…...
Chinese Stock Rally Has Outstripped Even Our Lofty Expectations from Summer 2013
Beginning with this piece from July 2013 in which we juxtaposed our bullish view on the prospects for Chinese equities with Barron’s call for an imminent credit crisis there, I’d like to believe my work on the region in recent times has…...
4/30 or 5/21?
The BoJ has upcoming monetary policy meetings/announcements as follows. I consider the latter schedule very important v-a-v our ongoing assessment of the Nikkei’s progress relative to our 6 mo RoC framework. Specifically, I find the 4/30 and 5/21 policy dates…...
Pivot Point Analog Update
We originally added our Nikkei pivot point logic to our overall framework of analyzing the index in early December of last year in this post. Thus far, the path the Nikkei has traveled following its 10/17/14 pivot point low print of…...
Global Macro & Cycle Round-Up
Last week we highlighted the USD and the critical long-term swing resistance it was pressing against. As it turns out, the USD blew past that resistance later in the week, per the chart below. In that chart, note that said…...
Attempting to Target Location & Magnitude of Upcoming Nikkei-Related Corrections
I thought it would be helpful for position-building to assess when and by how much the Nikkei might correct moving forward, assuming our overall framework and thesis for material additional upside is correct. Making the second assumption that we are…...