How & Why The Chinese Are Using Comex to Crush Paper Gold Prices While Simultaneously Laying the Groundwork for CNH to Become the World’s Next Reserve Currency
ZH has had much good commentary in recent months on the explosion in Comex open interest in gold (GC) relative to the amount of registered/deliverable physical held in related vaults, noting as recently as late NOV that the ratio had just…...
Into the Breach for the CRB Index
On 11/16 I highlighted the long-term support the CRB Index was approaching. Three weeks later it has pierced said support. In doing so, it has stepped foot into the “breach”, or what can be seen on the chart below as…...
Miners Held Steady as Gold Reached a New Low this Week
Courtesy of ST the following occurred this week: Even with gold itself hitting a new low, the gold mining stock indexes are at least 5% above their own lows. The only other times this has happened, using the HUI Gold…...
Gold Remains Compellingly Close to a Major Low
As I type spot gold is printing ~$1,055, putting it ~24% below its 4-yr/208-wk MA. This is the first week in 18 it has been this far removed from those MAs as it first breached this threshold the week of 7/31/15 when…...
Euro Approaching L-T Support, Reaction Will Have Material Implications for Future Trajectory of Inflation/Deflation Thematic
As I look back on the site in recent weeks/months it seems clear that the work has begun to shift toward the thematic of a deflation/inflation debate. Or, more specifically, the site’s thematic increasingly seems to reveal a world lurching, at accelerating…...
The Fed Plans to Hike Rates as it Fails at Its Price Stability Mandate; Gold Should Soon Begin Rising as a Result
Along the lines of our post two days ago re: the St. Louis Fed’s new deflation indicator, below we present a similar indicator that tracks the same institution’s estimate of the Fed hitting its mandated 2.0% (i.e., midpoint of 1.5%-2.5%) inflation…...
CRB Threatening to Break 40-Year Support as Deflation Risks Reach Great Recession Levels
A very simple, weekly long-term chart of the CRB Index is presented below. As you can see, the index’s significant decline over the past year has taken it down to line (1) support. This support dates back 40 years and represents…...
War Machine
Somebody is going to have to fire up the war machine to prevent deflation (crude) from accelerating (declining) in the near-term. Absent that, dramatic, near-term cuts in global oil output are needed. Per the below, the Tadawul, Saudi Arabia’s main…...
Potential Cyclical High In Place for SPX Relative to Crude
The chart below shows the long-term ratio of the SPX vs. crude. The pattern is well-defined in that it develops a large left shoulder over the course of 1985-1997 (SPX out-performance), followed by a distinct head from 1997-2000 (acceleration of…...
1998 Redux for Crude?
In these two posts here and here we discussed 1998 as a potential outcome to Aug/Sep’s global VOL in equities whereby strong pivots higher could result in additional, sustained upside to the long-term bull cycle that’s been intact since 2009 (or…...