Gold Faces its First Significant Test of Resistance Since Rallying 15% off its $1,525 Low
Over the past few months gold has rallied ~15% off its lows of $1,525. That rally has taken it up to two important resistance areas in the chart below including lines (1) and 61.8% Fib resistance formed b/t the metal’s…
Did Yesterday’s Open-Ended QE Announcement by the Fed Usher in a New Reflationary Wave?
The chart below shows the SPX on a weekly basis. Line (1) represents what we believe to be the market/economy’s most important line in the sand since 1987 – an on/off switch if you will. Why? This line is where…
Any Chance the Draghi Put is Now Priced Into the Euro & Corresponding Risk Assets in the Near-Term?
All the way back on July 10th we highlighted the fact that the Euro sat on very critical support levels when it stood at ~1.21, some 600 bps lower than the current ~1.29. We noted that if one were risk-asset bullish…
Long Gold / Short Equities Has Been a Generational Trade That Will Likely Continue
Since 1999 the ratio of the SPX vs. gold has declined 85%. That’s +485 bps annualized for somebody who was short the index and long gold the entire time. In the end, the logic for this trade remains quite simple:…
Does the Potential for a Gold Rally Mean Silver Must Follow it Higher?
We are long gold and have been for weeks now following a break-out of trend-line resistance that was in place since the metal’s 2011 highs. Conspicuously absent from this long position has been a corresponding long position in silver or any…...
Can Gold Now Target $3,000 With Miners Out-Performing on the Ride Up?
Back in the saddle, finally. I apologize for being away so long. Regardless, prior to stepping away, I had begun to shift our focus toward metals and away from equities with the thought being that the best trading opportunities were…...
Gold & Silver Approaching Resistance as USD Nears Support
In the chart below we plot Gold, Silver and the USD on a weekly basis. Gold and silver are both approaching stiff resistance dating back to their 2011 highs. At the same time, both are nearing the completion of descending…
USD Finally Going to Find Support & Bounce, Hurt Precious Metals in the Process?
We’ve been broadly bearish on the USD since May. We’ve outlined the justification for that stance in various posts in the recnent past here and here. In a nutshell, from a statistical standpoint, history told us that the USD’s recent…
Hedge Fund Legends Love Gold Again…Should They?
Add gold to the list of things that remain epic-ly confusing. Watching this metal (and silver and everything else) is like watching paint dry. When will the next big move happen? If you refer back to our last post on…...
Is 2012 for the Nikkei Analogous to 2002 for Gold?
What is the most absurd vision of the future we can come up with right now? What asset class or region seems least likely to embark on the next great secular bull market (or bear market)? Think back to the…...