Analog Update: Drift, Consolidate & Pivot (to SPX 2,400+ by 2016 Year-End)
In March of this year in this post I outlined why it appeared increasingly likely that all the insanity that had occurred off the May-15 top for US equities was merely a mid or late-cycle pause, akin to similar one-year holding patterns…...
Is that Something You Might Be Interested In?
Any former Entourage fan (we’re talking “deep cuts” fan) will remember the character of Bob Ryan, aka “What if I was to tell you…is that something you might be interested in?” Bob Ryan. For the unacquainted, Bob was best known…...
Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a “Major” Top?)
“Contradictions do not exist. Whenever you think that you are facing a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong.” — Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged As intensely volatile – and often times scary – as the…
All the Macro that’s Fit to Print
Every corner rounded seems to be producing a different chimera to be contended with at the moment. BREXIT, growing portions of sovereign debt lurching into negative-yield territory, NIRP chaos and its impact on Euro banks, China deval/credit collapse, Islamo-fascism, Fed tightening and…...
The DAX Bear Rolls On
Here’s an update to the analog first presented in this post whereby we compared the DAX off its Apr-15 highs to the bear paths it took during its 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 bears. The current path (black) is updated to reflect…...
Analog Update: Drift, Consolidate & Pivot
It’s been three weeks since I’ve updated my mid-cycle pause analog framework and a month since I did so in great detail. It’s time to update our progress. Here’s the SPY since its May-15 peak (black) vs. all of the DJI’s paths…...
No Good Bulls
Below I plot last week’s AAII reading for bulls. At just 19%, there are among the fewest % of bullish respondents in the survey’s history dating back to the early 90s. Indeed, there have only been 17 other readings this…...
Assessing the Recent Breadth & Volume Thrusts in U.S. Equities
In the chart below I plot the SPX in the top pane along with NYSE intermediate-term breadth and volume momentum oscillators in middle and lower panes, respectively. In early Mar-16 both of the latter oscillators concurrently generated prints > 200…...
Analog Update
Here’s an update to our mid-cycle pause into a blow-off rally analog, but with a slight change. In the previous analog we plotted the path taken off the May-15 high and compared it to the paths taken during 1926-1927, 1953-1954…...
Taking the Extremely Illogical to The Logical Extreme
In Jan, then in Mar and then twice in Apr of this year (once here and another here) I attempted to build a compelling historical case for the past year of increased VOL-based consolidation in US equities being emblematic of similar pauses in 1926-1927, 1953-1954 and…...