Solid Chance These Names Lose Half Their Value over the Coming Year?
The technical set-up in the charts below look very appealing from a short standpoint – both companies face long-term channel and/or falling resistance lines. Statistically, correlations suggest there’s a ~80% chance these names trade down over the coming year with…
HD to Mr. Bernanke: “Thank You Kind Sir”
Thanks to the re-ignition of animal spirits in the housing sector, stocks related to that area, such as HD, as well as various other building materials names, have benefited magnificently. HD is challenging its all-time highs right now in the chart below. Its P/E…
Though Such an Outcome May Not Be Imminent, Evidence Supporting Another 1929, 1937 or 1987-Style Event is Becoming Robust
As of 3/14 last week the Dow had been up 10 consecutive days. Dating back to the late 1800s there have been 35 such runs, including the most recent. In reality, the signal has only come 13x originally speaking as…...
Is Copper the Nikkei’s Rosetta Stone?
I was admiring the technical break-down in copper this morning (thinking about a long nat gas / short copper trade) and began to notice how analogous the price action in Copper 1993-2004 has been to the Nikkei 2003-current. Take a…...
Time to Get Short-Term Bearish on the Nikkei?
Color me ridiculous for putting up a post like this (it’s basically the inverse equivalent of a bullish post on a stock that’s down 90% and headed for BK that’s shown no abatement in downside), but whatever. The set-up in…...
Industry About to Deliver a Dose of Pain or Gain?
Ratio of the DJ Drug Retailer Index vs. SPX below. Continue to believe this ascending triangle pattern is of the bullish variety (typically is) and that this group is about to break-out and sustainably out-perform the market. Individually, here are…...
Perspective on the Nikkei’s Amazing Run
If the Nikkei finishes up on the week it will have posted gains in 18 of the past 20 weeks, or 90% of the time. Dating back to the 1800s, that’s never happened on the Dow. It happened on the…
Is James Glassman Really That Crazy, Why the Dow Potentially Has 60%-170% More Upside & Why Contrary to Michael Moore’s Views, Markets & Capitalism Worked Better Than Ever in Facilitating the Sub-Prime Crisis
Does anybody remember James Glassman? He’s that crazy guy who published this book in 1999 claiming the Dow would eclipse the 36K mark in ~three-five years. Turns out his earlier prediction wasn’t so correct. That doesn’t mean the guy doesn’t…
Quick Global Macro Overview
The ratio of the Nikkei vs. gold is reaching resistance after a massive 55%, four month rally off support. At the same time, gold sits at support itself. The Dow analog calls for a correction if the index can rally…...
NAV & SRI Up 60%-70% in Less Than Six Months
All the way back on September 26th of last year we had a post titled “Likely Time to Warm Up to a Few Key Commercial Truck Players” which focused on two players in the space including NAV and SRI. In…