Global Macro Overview
In the charts below the following noteworthy events are occurring: Mega-cap gold miner ABX is at 20-year support as well as its 2008 panic lows while its YoY is more negative than it’s ever been at -56% The ratio of the…...
Isn’t the USD Supposed to Drive PMs?
A few weeks back we plotted the Yen against various PMs in this post and suggested the latter had to “catch down” to the former given 1) they have tended to act as leading indicators for one another’s fair value, with…
Copper’s Technicals
A few weeks back when the metal stood at ~$3.50 we had a post on copper noting its technicals looked reasonably weak and if our read was correct, it had the potential to fall to ~$2. We update that technical set-up…...
Evolving Thoughts on How PMs Might Work into the Overall Macro Framework
Here’s a chart originally shown the other day comparing silver’s move from 1967-1973 vs. 2010-2014. The two share a good deal of similarity. If the pattern recognition is correct, silver might presumably begin to base in the $19-$20 area in the next few weeks,…...
How Bearish is Gold Sentiment?
Not all that bearish, at least in the context of history, when gold is in a bear market, according to SentimenTrader. In other words, public opinion can sour much further than it already has, and stay that way, when the…
Updated Silver Analog
Updated to reflect prices at ~$26.15 this week. One word – kaboom. Likely headed much lower to that aforementioned $13-$18 range....
Shiller P/E Suggests Any Additional Valuation Expansion Engineered by Fed Could Result in a Parabolic Move Higher for Equities
In the chart below note that the Shiller P/E currently stands at a line of demarcation. Historically, any further expansion in SPX valuations has coincided with parabolic moves higher and/or bubbles including the late 20s, mid 90s and the 2002-2007 global…...
Analog Update – SPX/Dow Remain on Track for Materially More Upside this Year
In the chart below I’ve updated the 1988/1989 4th/5th consecutive annual gain analog. Seems as if we completely just skipped over the ~400 bps correction the Dow had in this recent ~1 month window in 1989 and are apt to…...
Reflecting Back on the Nikkei’s Switch Being Flipped to the “On” Position
On January 11th, when the index stood at 10,800, we had a simple, two sentence post that asked two questions in the context of the resistance the Nikkei was facing in the chart we attached to that post: “Is line…
Thoughts on NZD
In the chart below the NZD and gold have tended to trade in a highly correlated manner for the past few years. More often than not, NZD has acted as a leading indicator for gold, moving north/south before gold does…...