FX Drives Everything
Want to use this post to reiterate the following: Over-weight sectors/industries that under-performed over the past decade Under-weight sectors/industries/that out-performed over the past decade The latter is most applicable to those sectors/industries heavily impacted, one way or the other, by…...
Equity Analog Update
Was reasonably confident, per the analog below, we’d get a quick, ~400 bps correction into ~14K on the Dow sometime in the past week or two. Increasingly, that appears unlikely. If it doesn’t happen, there’s a good chance the Dow…...
AAPL Analog Update
Our AAPL long, initiated in small size at ~$440 and in much larger size at $420, has begun to work very nicely. Assuming you split your position size 50/50 at ~$440 and ~$420, one should be up ~8% as of…...
Big Trouble in Little Thailand?
Filtered for a few items this morning on the Thai SET index in Thailand. Weekly close at least 700 bps < weekly high YoY >20% Looking for a massive reversal off a stretched bull cycle. Anybody find other instances interesting…...
Thoughts on the Two-Year Consolidation in Precious Metals
Remember our alternate way of thinking about silver we presented a few weeks back? That post is right here. In it, we suggested the potential for additional upside in the metal and that the highs from April 2011 were not…...
Updated Thoughts on Coffee
As a refresher, here’s some background on our evolving coffee thesis, as well as right here. Though the set-up has been somewhat technically appealing at times, we’ve correctly remained on the sidelines/bearish and have watched the product’s price decline ~20%…...
Though Such an Outcome May Not Be Imminent, Evidence Supporting Another 1929, 1937 or 1987-Style Event is Becoming Robust
As of 3/14 last week the Dow had been up 10 consecutive days. Dating back to the late 1800s there have been 35 such runs, including the most recent. In reality, the signal has only come 13x originally speaking as…...
Is Copper the Nikkei’s Rosetta Stone?
I was admiring the technical break-down in copper this morning (thinking about a long nat gas / short copper trade) and began to notice how analogous the price action in Copper 1993-2004 has been to the Nikkei 2003-current. Take a…...
What to Do with Cotton?
Had this post on cotton back in July which I thought was a quality piece of work. Bought a little back then, but not much as we planned on getting it bigger at 60, which was a price it failed…...
Is it Too Late to Short the Yen?
Not in my mind. My earlier post today on the Nikkei/Yen showed that their current respective 26 week RoC is as positive/negative (most upper-left) as it’s ever been. As I pointed out, the only time in history where the scatter-plot…...