Another Analog Framework from Which to Assess the Nikkei’s Rise
As of late, in conjunction with the Nikkei breaking above long-term trend-line resistance at ~14K, we began to suggest in this post that the index could make a sprint up to ~17.5K before peaking and then correcting. With the above in…...
Thoughts on the Nikkei in Real Terms
We’ve had some commentary recently about looking at the Nikkei in real terms. By real we meant taking the nominal value of the Nikkei and dividing by 10 Yr UST yields as a proxy for CPI. 10 Yr UST yields…...
Analog Update
Haven’t updated analogs in a while so this will be an exhaustive attempt at that. 1) 4th & 5th Consecutive Annual Gain – All ex 1928/1929 – Dow 1A) 4th & 5th Consecutive Annual Gain – 1988/1989 vs. 2012/2013 –…...
Market Nearly Perfectly on Track to Deliver 15% Median, One-Year Gain as Suggested Last August
On August 15 last year in this post we noted that if the market closed that week above 12,982 there was a 91% chance it would be higher one year later, with a median expected gain of 15%. The market closed…
Global Macro Overview
In the charts below the following noteworthy events are occurring: Mega-cap gold miner ABX is at 20-year support as well as its 2008 panic lows while its YoY is more negative than it’s ever been at -56% The ratio of the…...
Evolving Thoughts on How PMs Might Work into the Overall Macro Framework
Here’s a chart originally shown the other day comparing silver’s move from 1967-1973 vs. 2010-2014. The two share a good deal of similarity. If the pattern recognition is correct, silver might presumably begin to base in the $19-$20 area in the next few weeks,…...
Shiller P/E Suggests Any Additional Valuation Expansion Engineered by Fed Could Result in a Parabolic Move Higher for Equities
In the chart below note that the Shiller P/E currently stands at a line of demarcation. Historically, any further expansion in SPX valuations has coincided with parabolic moves higher and/or bubbles including the late 20s, mid 90s and the 2002-2007 global…...
Analog Update – SPX/Dow Remain on Track for Materially More Upside this Year
In the chart below I’ve updated the 1988/1989 4th/5th consecutive annual gain analog. Seems as if we completely just skipped over the ~400 bps correction the Dow had in this recent ~1 month window in 1989 and are apt to…...
The Nikkei’s 99.99th Percentile Price Action
With the Nikkei’s massive move last night it has managed a two-day, +530 bps rally. At the same time, its bull cycle is stretched as the four-year RoC already stands at +44%. In other words, though being deep in the…...
GE May Provide Excellent Read-Throughs to Future Risk Appetite in the Broader Market
Present the Dow below with a large inset of the ratio of GE vs. the SPX. Note that the ratio of GE vs. SPX has tended to trade in a sideways, cyclical channel since the 1970s as defined by lines…...