Nikkei Short-Termism (Part 2)
I wanted to build off the simple short-termist statistical analysis on the Nikkei posted earlier today with a similar analog/technical round-up on the index as well. What we’re trying to do today is tie our short-term views on the index…...
Nikkei Short-Termism (Part 1)
As of Wednesday 5/6 the USD-denominated, CME-listed Nikkei futures contract (NKc1) had been down 8 of 10 days. We can’t run the same analysis on the actual Nikkei index itself because Japanese markets were closed on 4/29 and 5/4-5/6, or four…...
Analog Update
Below is a quick update to our recent pivot point analog post on the Nikkei a few weeks ago in which we outlined our belief that the BoJ was unlikely to expand the scope of its QE program at its next…...
4/30 or 5/21?
The BoJ has upcoming monetary policy meetings/announcements as follows. I consider the latter schedule very important v-a-v our ongoing assessment of the Nikkei’s progress relative to our 6 mo RoC framework. Specifically, I find the 4/30 and 5/21 policy dates…...
Pivot Point Analog Update
We originally added our Nikkei pivot point logic to our overall framework of analyzing the index in early December of last year in this post. Thus far, the path the Nikkei has traveled following its 10/17/14 pivot point low print of…...
Global Macro & Cycle Round-Up
Last week we highlighted the USD and the critical long-term swing resistance it was pressing against. As it turns out, the USD blew past that resistance later in the week, per the chart below. In that chart, note that said…...
Attempting to Target Location & Magnitude of Upcoming Nikkei-Related Corrections
I thought it would be helpful for position-building to assess when and by how much the Nikkei might correct moving forward, assuming our overall framework and thesis for material additional upside is correct. Making the second assumption that we are…...
Cap-Weighted (Topix), Not Price (Nikkei), to Lead way in Japan
Moving forward, I believe various market-cap weighted Topix indexes will out-perform the price-weighted Nikkei. As such, in an ideal world we’d own the Topix. However, that brings with it complexities. For one, there is no liquid USD-denominated domestic product to express this…...
Japan Update
The BoJ releases its latest monetary policy decision/statement tonight. There has been recent chatter that the BoJ, or at least a small minority of its members, are growing uneasy about Yen weakness and the pressure that is putting on consumers purchasing…...
Copper May Still be the Nikkei’s Rosetta Stone
One of the first ever posts I put on the site re: the Nikkei was this one where it was suggested that 2012 for the index was analogous to circa 2002 for gold, with the point being the former was…...