Recent Chinese Panic Could be First Clouds of Gathering Storm in Emerging Market Equities
I believe the recent panic in China might merely be the first set of clouds in what is to be a gathering storm that will hit EM equities. I say this because of the extremely bearish set up in anything EM-related that I…...
USDJPY Testing 35-Year Resistance
Below we have weekly close and monthly HLC views of USDJPY. On each we find lines (1) and (2) resistance. Line (1) is 35-year resistance for USDJPY dating back to ~1978. Combined with line (2) which runs to ~200, the…...
DJI Both Vying for and Augmenting Copper’s Status as the Nikkei’s Rosetta Stone
Over two years ago we began highlighting the similarities b/t the way the copper and the Nikkei ended their secular bears over the 1989-2002 and 1989-2008 periods, respectively. Specifically, we focused on the last few years in each of those…...
Gaining Additional Nikkei Clarity
Last week as the Nikkei began to break down on our post-pivot analog relative to expectations I was struggling to ascertain what was going on. We detailed as much in this post and offered a suggestion that despite that deviation in…...
Repeating Pattern in Long Bond Price Suggests its Decline (Yield Rise) to Accelerate
Following up on what we envisioned as its peak (and rates’ trough) from our Feb-2015 post on the subject, at the present time the price of the 30 yr UST is replicating a pattern that has historically signaled the onset…...
Could Palladium Weakness Spell Similar Trouble for Equities?
In an earlier post this week we displayed palladium’s ostensible break below multi-year, long-term trend-line support and suggested that break-down would be apt to precipitate accelerated downside in the commodity, as similar break-downs had in the past. Today we present…...
More Nikkei Short-Termism & Analog Update
After correcting ~250 bps into Wednesday 6/10 of this week, the Nikkei rebounded sharply last night. This transition to strength from weakness over the past day resulted in a ~350 bps swing in the U.S. futures contract’s 10 hour RoC…...
Where Did All the Equity VOL Go?
Much has been made of late about the absence of domestic equity market VOL; seemingly, much of that VOL, or at least the pretense of it in the financial press, appears to be focused on global sovereign debt instead. I decided…...
Nikkei Short-Termism (Part 2)
I wanted to build off the simple short-termist statistical analysis on the Nikkei posted earlier today with a similar analog/technical round-up on the index as well. What we’re trying to do today is tie our short-term views on the index…...
Nikkei Short-Termism (Part 1)
As of Wednesday 5/6 the USD-denominated, CME-listed Nikkei futures contract (NKc1) had been down 8 of 10 days. We can’t run the same analysis on the actual Nikkei index itself because Japanese markets were closed on 4/29 and 5/4-5/6, or four…...