Sigh…
Using monthly Shiller data, over the past year Dec-12 to Dec -13, the yield on the 10 Yr UST has risen ~75% to 300 bps from ~170 bps; concurrently, the SPX has risen ~28% to its current level. With this…...
Charting a Path to 45,000
We were very early to the Nikkei long and secular bull story, having first outlined the rough sketches of this call all the way back in June 2012, long before it was fashionable. We added greater depth and confidence to…
Fair Value for the 10 Yr?
Risk-free, 10 Yr UST rates DO influence pricing on Aaa-rated corporate issues. As such, the Fed’s bond buying program of government securities has invariably pushed yields on Aaa-rated issues lower than they would be ex the Fed’s influence, resulting in…...
Analog Update
To repeat, 2013 is only the fourth example of a 5th consecutive annual gain in the Dow’s history dating back to the late 1800s – 1928, 1989 and 1995 are the other three examples. In light of this week’s downside…...
One of Eight
Have finally found something worth writing about… In this post I want to revisit the 4-Yr RoC framework we discussed a few times in spring of this year. We first presented that framework and its significance in this post and built…...
Analog Update
I apologize as I don’t have a ton of incremental, edgy ideas or content right now. As I hope you know, if there is relevant work to be posted, I do it, but only then. Certainly, there’s any number of…...
More Elaboration on the Potential for the Fireworks Dissipating
At the end of October we had two detailed posts (here’s #1 and here’s #2) that suggested 2014 could very well turn out to be a year that lacked fireworks, unlike every single year since the global equity/debt/real estate peak in…...
NBD
No big deal, but the Nikkei is currently pressing up against 24-year resistance line (1) in the chart below. I’ll merely point out that the index has not been above this resistance line since 1989, or coming off its all-time…...
24-Year Support at Hand for This Ratio
The ratio of the Yen vs. Nikkei is at 24-year support line (1) below. Additionally, line (2) support is at hand. I would note that line (1) was not hit in May when the Nikkei peaked at 16K. Line (1)…...
Lower-Risk/Higher-Reward Spread Trade Idea Useful for Those Looking to Deploy Excess Cash Balances
In the following chart we show the ratio of the Nikkei vs. gold. Into its 2012/2013 low of ~5, this ratio had fallen ~90% from its 2000-era high of ~70. However, upon hitting 12.38 last week, note the ratio has…...