A Highly Favored Group of Ours Faces Near-Term Resistance
We’ve been very bullish on Airlines dating back to the genesis of this site in May of last year. Our original and ongoing thesis on the group can be seen by clicking right here. As of right now, the group, via the…
Does the Macro Technical Landscape for Equities Include 10%-15% More Upside?
We plot the SPX and Dow in three charts below. In the weekly SPX chart on the far left, note the massive ascending wedge pattern b/t lines (1) and (2) – line (1) runs to the 1987 top and line…
Why Has the Nikkei Out-Performed the SPX So Much Recently?
Our view is that the Nikkei has out-performed so much since later 2012 because of a technical set-up that was in place in the chart below. In that set-up the ratio of the SPX vs. Nikkei hit material long-term resistance…
Nasdaq is at a 12 Year High, What’s it Mean in the Context of History?
Last week the Nasdaq closed at 3,194. This marked a 12 year high. The index hadn’t notched a 12 year high in 674 weeks, or nearly 13 years. What’s that mean in the context of history? Well, because the Nasdaq…...
Taking a Look at the Healthcare Industry
The chart below highlights the ratio of the DJ US Healthcare Providers Index vs. SPX. The ratio is caught in a long-term ascending triangle pattern b/t lines (1) and (2). Typically such patterns are bullish and result in strong break-outs…....
Up 18% in Less than Two Months, the Nikkei’s Ascent to 14K This Year Continues Unabated
On December 13th when the index was ~1,700 points lower, we noted in this post that the Nikkei was working on a rather important technical break-out. In that post we suggested the following: “…a break above line (1) would be…
Transports Have Had a Great Run Since September, Now What?
I kind of dropped the ball on the Transports back in early October. In this post I highlighted the fact that I thought they’d continue to under-perform until the ratio of the DJ Transports vs. SPX fell to 3.2-3.3 vs…....
Historical Cycle Analysis – What Type is This & Where Are We?
The chart below plots the Dow since the late 1800s and includes its four-year rate-of-change (RoC). Why do I plot the four-year RoC? Through history, bull cycles have lasted 48 months on average, or four years. As such, I thought…...
Equity Analog Update
1987 vs. 2011 Crash Lows “Volatility” Analog 4th & 5th Consecutive Annual Gain Analog (including 1928) 4th & 5th Consecutive Annual Gain Analog (only 1988-1989 vs. 2012-2013)...
New Industry Out-Performance Idea Presents Opportunity for Alpha
The first chart below shows the ratio of the DJ Medical Equipment Index vs. SPX. The ratio has traded sideways for a decade now, meaning medical equipment names have effectively been market-performers over that time. However, since 2006 the ratio…...