One-Way
Although the nadir for the DJI during the GFC came in Mar-09, the index’s YoY didn’t turn positive until Oct-09. That was 95 months ago. Remarkably, the index’s YoY has been positive in 85 of those ensuing 95 months, or 89%…...
Cycle Peak Mosaic Building Efforts Continue
In my last big picture update piece here we talked about the difficulty at this stage of the game of trying to prognosticate when or at what price level this US equity bull cycle will flame out. We have our…...
Big Picture Update
Our highest conviction thematics within our big picture thinking remain the following: US equities: mid-cycle pause framework EU equities: major periphery rally underway, per N225 (2012) and SHCOMP (2014) set-ups EM equities: large cyclical rally underway up to 2007 highs…...
EU Analog Update
It’s been two months since we laid out our EU/Portugal analog framework for the first time and six weeks since we last updated it. It now looks as follows (using Portugal’s PSI20 Index; all analogs present the first year of…...
EMs Approaching Long-Term Resistance, What Next?
The MSCI EM Index (MXEF) is approaching historical resistance dating back to its 2007 highs on a monthly closing basis below. On a weekly closing basis the set-up is similar, though the index has some remaining upside left. In the…...
EU Big Picture: Reverberations From 1992 & the Maastricht Treaty
Headed into the BREXIT vote on 6/23/16 we began to discuss the ratio of the STOXX600, Europe’s equivalent of the SPX, relative to the SPX itself. Posts on the topic, both before and after the BREXIT vote, can be found…...
Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update
It’s now been over a year since I originally presented the “mid-cycle pause” analog framework in this post. In addition to crossing the one-year anniversary for introducing this framework, I haven’t had a new post on the topic for two months, so…...
Round-Tripping on the SHCOMP
I reviewed China in a Dec-16 post, focusing on what at the time seemed to be a building case for out-sized moves in USDCNY and the SHCOMP and largely predicated on how the ratio chart b/t these two items seemed to…...
Tracking Regional EU Progress
On 3/28 we noted that Portuguese equities, via the PSI20 Index, had coiled noticeably into what looked to be a bullish pattern that resembled the N225 in late 2012 and SHCOMP in spring/summer 2014 before their ensuing six month and…...
Un-Hedged Japan Attempting to Clear Multi-Decade, Secular Bear Resistance
Below we plot EWJ over the past ~20 years of its history. EWJ is the Japan/N-225 tracker but is currency un-hedged unlike DXJ, which hedges FX. So, being long EWJ is being long Japanese stocks in JPY-terms. Thus, if EWJ…...