Last Buyable Correction into the Final Run?
I’d like to use this post to analyze the current ~10% correction in US equities in the context of our mid-cycle pause analog. As that framework goes, I’m not entirely surprised the correction is occurring here and now. I’m not…...
Yield Curve: Implications as we Approach 40-Year Support
Something on the macro front that’s beginning to get some attention is the US yield curve (2s10s), but I think it’s being discussed and analyzed absent proper context. What’s being emphasized is its collapse over the past year. This is true…...
EM Equities: 2007’s Secular High In Sight
I last updated our ongoing secular bear market analog framework for EM equities ~four months ago in this “Macro Round-Up” post, but as a refresher, first introduced it in this Jan-17 post. There were five central conclusions outlined in the original piece: EM began…...
US Equities’ Historically Extended RSI
As of the week of 12/15/17 the DJI’s weekly RSI logged a print of 85.6 (have chosen DJI instead of SPX because former has more available chart history). It’s continued to print > 85 in each of the ensuing three…...
The Case for Nikkei 40K in 2018
In mid-October I updated my thinking on the Nikkei, asking in this post whether its break above quarter-century resistance meant it was finally “game-on” for the region’s much beleaguered equities after what seemed to be an enduring, generational secular bear…
Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update: First Signs of Euphoria?
Since I last updated my big-picture, mid-cycle pause analog framework for assessing US equities in mid-October in this post, optimism about Trump’s tax plan and its ability to successfully sail through Congress has mounted. Tax-related optimism has begun to infect…...
Transportation Stocks: Why a Secular Under-Performance Bear is Just now Beginning
An analysis of nearly 100 years of history compellingly suggests that transportation equities are in the early stages of a major, secular under-performance bear cycle vs. the broader market. When I say “transportation equities” I’m referring to the Dow Jones Transportation Average…...
Japan: Game On?
I think the answer to this post’s title is a resounding ‘yes’. Having said that, I’ve been spilling ink on this site about Japan dating back to 2012 (there are 102 posts in the site’s N225 category), so it’s probably…...
Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update
It’s been nearly three months since I last updated my big-picture US equity cycle analogs. Let’s take the time to refresh them now. Here’s our mid-cycle pause analog. Price continues to track closely to our historical comparisons, albeit below the “average” levels they imply…...
Chart Dump
Let’s start with a top-down view by looking at the R2K. Yesterday’s tax plan-fueled rally in the major indices helped launch it significantly higher. In the process, the index managed to smash through multiple years of upside resistance. This resistance…...