Saudi Arabia Faces 13-Yr Falling Resistance
Below I plot the Tadawul Index – Saudi Arabia’s main equity index. Note that it has rallied up to test falling resistance off its 2006 and 2014 swing highs and that the former occurred 623 weeks ago. One of the…
Japan Chart Dump
I continue to believe, as crazy as it sounds, that the Nikkei might round-trip its 30-yr decline from 40K in 1989 by getting back to that level either this or next year. I’ve outlined the case for this scenario two…
Multi-Century, Cross-Asset Correlation Analysis Suggests Nikkei 40K Remains Feasible, if Not Likely
In late Dec-17 I outlined a case for the Nikkei reaching 40K during 2018 in this post. As ridiculous as that sounded at the time, I thought the analytical justification was sound. Generally, the Nikkei’s path from 1989-Dec-17 was highly analogous…...
Persistence of Bullish S&P500 Trend Has But One Precedent in 220 Years of History
The SPX’s YoY comp went positive for the first time in Oct-09 as the world emerged from the GFC. That was 103 months ago. Rounding it down to an even 100 months, as of Apr-17 the index’s YoY had been…
Long Rates, Short Equities?
One of the worst patterns one can ever find is the kind seen on the USD in the late 90s… Three distinct pushes higher over the course of a few years with declining RSI into a H&S type of top…...
Ag Commodity Complex Historically Oversold
Like nearly all of the commodity complex ex crude, the Ag portion of the space [via the S&P GSCI Ag Index: (SPGSAGD)] put in an all-time high bubble top in Mar-11 with the the YoY on the SPGSAGD first entering negative…...
Multi-Year Cyclical Peak for EM Equities Likely in Place
Before we dig into this post’s declarative title, let’s revisit the genesis EM work that got us to this point today. Specifically, I mean the 1/2/17 post that proclaimed EM equities, though likely mired in an ongoing secular bear, were nonetheless about…...
Commodity Secular Bears: A Century’s Worth of Historical Perspective
It’s Apr-18. That means we’re at the 7-yr anniversary of the global commodity super-cycle peak of 2011. This offers a neat and convenient time-based milestone upon which to assess the unrelenting carnage in the group since that peak and how it…...
Oilfield Services Attractive on Numerous Relative Fronts
One could spend a few hours cycling through charts of various US equity industries, both on an absolute and relative basis vs. the SPX, and find very little to get excited about. They simply all look the same – nearly…...
Twilight on the Horizon for the Global Bull Market?
Our mid-cycle pause analog framework has served us exceedingly well for two years since its original construction in this March 2016 post. And while no framework will ever be perfect, its accuracy has nonetheless been exceptional in divining the future over…...