Global Geo-Political Tensions about to Rise?
The ratio of the DJ Airlines Index vs. SPX is nearing a critical piece of resistance in the chart below. Interestingly, every time this resistance has been in play important geo-political events (including 9/11), especially those concerning the Middle East,…
More Evidence the Commodity & Emerging Market Secular Bull Run is Over
The chart below highlights the ratio of the DJ Basic Resources Index vs. SPX. Note the secular rise in the ratio from 2002-2008 indicating the ongoing strength of the secular bull market in basic resources, commodities and emerging markets/infrastructure growth….
Equity Analog Update
Figured I would simply dump and update all the various equity analog sets we’ve been using for the past 6-9 months in one post so that collectively, they could paint a broad picture of the macro landscape. 4th & 5th…...
A Perennially Poor Market Timing Tool, Why is the Shiller P/E Ratio Critical all of a Sudden?
Take a look at the rolling 10 year average P/E ratio on the SPX below. It current stands at ~22.5x. What do you notice? Why has this level been so important in the context of history? Why is it that…...
A Highly Favored Group of Ours Faces Near-Term Resistance
We’ve been very bullish on Airlines dating back to the genesis of this site in May of last year. Our original and ongoing thesis on the group can be seen by clicking right here. As of right now, the group, via the…
Does the Macro Technical Landscape for Equities Include 10%-15% More Upside?
We plot the SPX and Dow in three charts below. In the weekly SPX chart on the far left, note the massive ascending wedge pattern b/t lines (1) and (2) – line (1) runs to the 1987 top and line…
Taking a Look at the Healthcare Industry
The chart below highlights the ratio of the DJ US Healthcare Providers Index vs. SPX. The ratio is caught in a long-term ascending triangle pattern b/t lines (1) and (2). Typically such patterns are bullish and result in strong break-outs…....
Transports Have Had a Great Run Since September, Now What?
I kind of dropped the ball on the Transports back in early October. In this post I highlighted the fact that I thought they’d continue to under-perform until the ratio of the DJ Transports vs. SPX fell to 3.2-3.3 vs…....
Equity Analog Update
1987 vs. 2011 Crash Lows “Volatility” Analog 4th & 5th Consecutive Annual Gain Analog (including 1928) 4th & 5th Consecutive Annual Gain Analog (only 1988-1989 vs. 2012-2013)...
New Industry Out-Performance Idea Presents Opportunity for Alpha
The first chart below shows the ratio of the DJ Medical Equipment Index vs. SPX. The ratio has traded sideways for a decade now, meaning medical equipment names have effectively been market-performers over that time. However, since 2006 the ratio…...