Analog Update
I apologize as I don’t have a ton of incremental, edgy ideas or content right now. As I hope you know, if there is relevant work to be posted, I do it, but only then. Certainly, there’s any number of…...
Year 6
We’ve discussed the 4th/5th consecutive annual gain paradigm and analog incessantly over the past year. With the Dow up 18% YTD and a ~30 trading days left in the year, unless something shockingly exogenous occurs, 2013 is going to go…...
Carry On
Because there’s nothing to see in the Shiller P/E chart below. We are pressing incredibly important statistical boundaries for U.S. equity valuations at the current moment and valuations have exceeded their current level of ~24x only 5x in history, all…...
Obscure Measure of Market Internals Pointing to a “Bull Treat”?
I’d like to think nobody has ever considered using the RSI of the ratio of XLP vs. SPX to gauge market internals and overall macro risk before. As far as I know, I’ve never seen anybody use or write about…...
More Thoughts on Global Equity Allocations
Over the past two months or so we have become increasingly bearish / less bullish on the U.S. from an intermediate-term cyclical standpoint. We first began questioning the remaining intermediate-term upside of this 46 month cyclical rally in the U.S. in…...
Analog Update
Toward the end of last year and for the entirety of this year, our framework for thinking about 2013 has been as follows: 2012 marked a 4th consecutive annual gain for the market (Dow); historically that had happened only six previous times…...
Global Equity Spread-Trade Update
I want to reiterate my belief that Europe, like China, is set to out-perform U.S. equities moving forward. That thesis remains grounded in the chart below, which shows the ratio b/t the Vanguard Euro Vipers ETF and the SPX. The…...
Analog Update
The SPX has rallied to 1,680 today, reaching our upside price target objective, which was the 61.8% retracement level formed b/t the 8/5 highs and 8/28 lows, respectively. Though it has crept above this level somewhat, this isn’t all that…...
Spread Trade Idea in Global Equities
As you know, I’ve gotten structurally bearish over the past two weeks. Even if I’m wrong, I’m of the opinion that any U.S. equity upside is going to be more limited from current levels, likely no higher than Dow 16,250…...
46 Months is All She Wrote?
Is that all she wrote for the current U.S. equity bull? The case may be quite simple and compelling: DURATION – at 46 months now, the current bull is the third longest in history. Only 2003-2008, 1924-1929 and 1991-2000 lasted…...